No. of Recommendations: 8
As the democrats continue with their circular firing squad, the latest post-debate polling shows little to no change in candidate preference (Biden left, Trump right):
50%-48% NPR/Marist
44%-42% GW/YouGov
47%-46% Split Ticket/DfP
47%-46% Clarity
50%-50% Emerson
46%-46% WaPo
42%-43% R & W
42%-43% Bendixen/Amandi
41%-42% Big Village
42%-44% Morning Consult
40%-43% Econ/YouGov 1/
A new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds
"Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.Contrary to what some here have insisted, there is a suggestion that Project 2025 is hurting Trump with voters.
Finally, no other mainstream democrat polls better than Biden against Trump. Vice President Harris gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump, California Gov. Gavin Newsom matches Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. And Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are tied at 49% to 49%.
So a Harris-Newson ticket? Or perhaps a Harris-Cooper ticket? Or a Harris-Shapiro ticket? Two women on the ticket seems unlikely.
But with these post-debate poll numbers, good luck getting Biden to voluntarily withdraw.
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden...
No. of Recommendations: 3
Well, if that's true, here are the Most Harmful and Unpopular Policies on P2025
*Stopping overtime pay.
*Pre-existing conditions
*Monitoring pregnancy
*Ending drug price negotiations
*Cutting social security
*New tax on health insurance
*Eliminating the NWS
*Eliminating head start
https://twitter.com/NavigatorSurvey/status/1810659...
No. of Recommendations: 4
A new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds "Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
“Gained a point” is meaningless in a poll which has a 3.6% margin of error. That’s because the margin of ERROR is real, and a 42% number is statistically identical to a 45% number. In a poll of 1,200 or so people that’s typical, even if every other protocol has been scrupulously followed : it’s not just cell phones, it’s not just home phones, it’s geographically spread through the country, if care is taken to hit minority *and* wealthy enclaves (hard to get responses from either), if young people are surveyed accurately (also hard to reach) and if it’s a stratified, randomized sample and doesn’t contain any language loading, or even positional bias (first questions get answered more often than those further down the list) and so on.
But wait! It’s even worse than that. Usually unsaid is there is still something called “confidence level”, which means that even if every single thing that can be controlled for is done right, the survey will still be wrong 1 out of 10 times if the confidence level is only 90%. (It’s generally higher, maybe 93-95%).
Let me offer a perfectly perfect poll, where the candidate gets 50%, exactly, and it’s true.
But the polls he gets are 50%. A week later 49%. A week after that 48%. And a week after that 45%. Remember, this candidate has 50% and that’s perfectly accurate, but the polls going down to 49% and 48% are within the margin of error, and the last poll, at 45% is that weird time when the confidence factor kicked in (or out) and the poll is just dead wrong. Eventually that will wash out and self correct, however by that time the candidate has slit his wrists.
In my professional life I watched this play out; radio stations were “surveyed” every month, and stations with rock solid listening (like, say so-called “Beautiful Music” stations) would jump up and down for no apparent reason except “sample wobble”, and would suddenly jump back to where they had been - all without explanation. (Some stations, like all news or sports can vary widely based on the programming, but that is a different thing.)
Having a plethora of surveys is good, but it’s the *trend* of each individually that matters, as they all have their own inherent surveying techniques both for good and bad, so quoting a single survey is fraught. That’s what makes political polling so dicey: short season (even if it seems interminably long to us) and random events that spike.
Anyway, polls are media crutches, but the public loves them so they’re not going away. Just every once in a while I feel compelled to shout at the internet and say “Don’t pay so much attention”, but it does no good, and I accept that.
Ah. There. I feel better now.
