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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 673 
Subject: PZZA
Date: 04/16/2024 8:51 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)

I came across this in a screen of stocks/ads less than 5% above their 52 week low, have dividends between 2-7%, and have at least 1% growth rate in their dividend over the past 5 years. Interestingly, it has a few consumer food companies - Hershey (HSY), Jack in the Box (JACK), Nestle (NSRGY), Papa John's, Starbucks (SBUX), JM Smucker (SJM).

They have a decent product, low market penetration, reasonable valuation, and pay me to wait.

I wouldn't call them a falling knife, necessarily, but they are down 50% since Jan 2023.

I'd note that a few water utilities are in those screen results, too.

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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 673 
Subject: Re: PZZA
Date: 04/17/2024 11:18 AM
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they are down 50% since Jan 2023

Sorry, that is Jan 2022, not 2023.

a few water utilities are in those screen results, too

After digging into that a little, it may be related to EPA PFAS regulation. I don't know how long the standards were under consideration or how much cost there is to complying with them. I found some press releases from a couple of the water utilities referring to complying with the new regulation with ion-exchange resins, and that the stock of a major supplier of those, Purolite (Ecolab, ECL subsidiary) had moved but it wasn't highly correlated - just visually speaking - with the downtrend in the water utilities.
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 673 
Subject: Re: PZZA
Date: 07/11/2024 10:21 PM
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Still falling, almost down a third since my original post on Papa John's International, Inc.

I've added a little recently. They just seem inexpensive, even if the trend looks bad. Maybe Wegovy will really be the end for a number of quick service businesses, and I should be buying LLY instead.
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