No. of Recommendations: 13
I think he will continue to conclude that merely because it HAS been true, it will ipso facto REMAIN true.
...
You really think Warren thinks like the typical Mr.Joe investor? That his psychology and bias is the same? Even after decades with Charlie?
Well, let's put in a more nuanced way.
I think Mr Buffett is the consummate investor. He sees around corners that I don't, and nobody else does. In investing, he's clearly smarter than I am.
Yet I think he is American to his core, and has a huge home-market bias, and believes in the U S of A to the moon, and always will, and that his life experiences have provided nothing but reinforcement for that stance. I think that yes, he has some blinders to that extent. I only ever wrote him a letter once, and that was to chew him out for talking about "we" in an annual letter referring to Americans rather than to shareholders. For whom does he work? A non-American shareholder, or a non-shareholder American?
But...I also appreciate that there is often a dissonance between what he espouses and what he actually does. As mentioned, I think he will almost certainly SAY that he believes in the ability of the US and the US economy to weather any storm and always come back stronger, and that one should never doubt and always bet on the future of the US. Mom, apple pie, the genius of the founders, always worked in the past, two if by sea, blah blah blah.
But he also understands Rule #1 better than anyone else on the planet. I think that he is well aware that this core stars-and-stripes-forever stance is not necessarily always true and will be acting accordingly, within the bounds of what he perceives any true risks may be and whatever is feasible for Berkshire's portfolio. Likely not much deployed capital, for example. At a stretch, possibly even some non-US currency holdings.
Jim
