No. of Recommendations: 15
This (price topping out) might be true, I don't know, but it doesn't seem to have happened yet to gold, also a capital asset with no earnings or coupons, which has been around a long time. Monet's Meules sold for a record $110.7 million five years ago, double its pre-estimated value of $55 million, and he's been dead nearly a hundred years. Maybe the durability of demand depends on the quality of the asset...The demand curve looks to be at a relatively early stage.
It may have happened with gold already. Gold's inflation adjusted price is still below the 1980 peak (around $3100 in today's prices). Same with silver. It is possible gold will not return to its inflation-adjust peak price within living memory of the people who experienced it. That's us, boyos. I'm saying there is a good chance we will all be dead before we see gold prices that high again.
On the topic of Monet, consider three artists who were active at about the same time as him:
Ernest Meissonier was the highest-paid painter of the 19th century, with his meticulously detailed military scenes selling for astronomical sums. Today he's largely forgotten outside of specialist art history circles.
Jean-Léon Gérôme was one of the most famous painters of his day, known for his Oriental scenes and historical paintings. His work commanded huge prices and he was considered one of the most important artists of his time. Similarly, he's a mostly footnote today.
Vincent Van Gogh was a commercial and critical flop during his lifetime and only sold a few paintings (maybe a as few as one).*
If we were in 1890 discussing which artist would have enduring value, we certainly would not have picked van Gogh. Buying gold and silver was a mistake in 1980.
We could be early in Bitcoin's demand curve. Could be at the peak too. We might be dead before we find out which.
*After his death, his sister-in-law Jo van Gogh-Bonger inherited his collection. She developed and expanded relationships with museums and dealers (her late husband Theo and Vincent's brother was an art dealer) and otherwise promoted van Gogh's work, including in America. After her death in 1925, her son Vincent Willem van Gogh continued her promotional work. By the 1950s and 1960s van Gogh paintings were selling for high prices. Even talent spotting might not be enough to identify an enduring asset, unless you can also talent spot the PR team.
