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Author: Smurfdogg   😊 😞
Number: of 55 
Subject: ideas betond BRK
Date: 02/22/2025 3:54 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Nice to see some BRK board regulars here.

I assumed the reason there was little talk about BRK here was because everyone knew about it and was invested in it.

I have something like 85% of net worth in BRK and am always looking for other options but nothing much measures up. I keep a chunk in QQQE and have watched Markel do very average once it ramped up from the low price I got in at.

I'm looking (like everyone else) for anything that will beat the S&P index and is safer. It seems the S&P index has been "too high" for a long time.

I'm currently shoring up the fixed income end of my portfolio with laddered Treasuries.

All thoughts welcomed.

A wave to Tex and Goofy, two posters I've been reading for decades now and have nothing but the highest respect for. When they post, listen!

SD
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Author: suaspontemark   😊 😞
Number: of 55 
Subject: Re: ideas betond BRK
Date: 02/25/2025 1:02 PM
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I still like Apple. My largest holding, by far, in my equities slice of the portfolio - it outran Berkshire (#2) probably a decade ago. I think it is 16% of my overall holdings - that wasn't so much a decision as what buying when Steve Jobs was still alive did, over time, with the compounding we've seen in the post-iPhone era. Majority is still indices, and the fixed income is a pretty fat ladder of T-bills and annuities, just to sort of complete the picture.

The ecosystem is astoundingly sticky, as noted by WEB and others.

They manage to simply maintain a strategic focus on excellence in execution, integration, and do so with strong margins. They give a fig about being first in, but rather want to be best in class.

I first used their products in 1982 (I still have a printout). I've used Windows at various times, mostly in the '90s and '00s, but about 20 years ago got my first modern OSX Mac mini and it would take an extraordinary change (negative at Apple, gangbusters amazing at Microsoft) to flip me back. I lost count of how many Apple devices are in my house - they're used by everyone, for 100% of their work, professional and personal.

I gave Android a solid shake. Perfectly fine and functional tablet, used it for months. But simply not as good. I'm not a rabid fanboy; I'm an empirical engineer who overanalyzes/measures things to a fault. I put down the Samsung tablet and it is in a drawer, collecting dust now, and I'm glad to be back to the iPad.

If I go to the mall, the foot traffic in the Apple Store is greater, numerically, by an order of magnitude than any other similar sized store. I dare say they have a greater head count than Macy's at times.

Their 10ks and 10qs show no signs of distress or concerns. Their leadership is top flight.
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Author: Mark   😊 😞
Number: of 55 
Subject: Re: ideas betond BRK
Date: 02/26/2025 8:24 AM
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I still like Apple. My largest holding

I have similar thoughts. And Apple is, by far, my largest holding (much larger than 16%, even after some stock sales at the end of last year) at this point after 2+ decades of owning it.

I first used their products in 1982 (I still have a printout). I've used Windows at various times, mostly in the '90s and '00s, but about 20 years ago got my first modern OSX Mac mini and it would take an extraordinary change (negative at Apple, gangbusters amazing at Microsoft) to flip me back. I lost count of how many Apple devices are in my house - they're used by everyone, for 100% of their work, professional and personal.

My first use of an Apple product was the iPhone early on. Probably 2008 or 2009, it was an iPhone 3g. It was far better than any other cellphone at the time, and I had been using blackberry for more than a decade AND I was developing similar products at one of my employers in the blackberry years. My first mac was in 2012, a Macbook pro with the new high quality display (I think their marketing term was "retina display"). I'm also an engineer, and thus much more empirical than fanboy. I also use PC on a regular basis, or at least I did use them until I retired a few years ago. And I still use Android on a regular basis, some of the phones I use for games are android phones.

When I first got cellphones for all my kids, the carrier sent us 5 windows phones. Over a period of months (literally MONTHS) they couldn't get them to work properly. I worked with the engineers at the carrier for many hours to try different things, and they could not get those phones to function properly. There were intractable bugs in the phone (I had other phones at the time that could be tried side by side during all this testing). Finally they gave up, took back the 5 windows phones and sent us 5 android phones (LG brand) instead. Those worked fine for a while, but then my kids caught the iPhone bug and all wanted iPhones. I then upgraded each of them to various used iPhones, pretty much from eldest to youngest over about 2 years. Now they will only use iPhone. For a while, when they were still teens, if they misbehaved, a joking threat that we would use as parents, was to tell them that we will switch them to Android if they don't improve their behavior. And at this point, 3 out of 5 kids choose to use a macbook and will only use a PC when forced to for work, and the remaining 2 chose to use only a PC laptop.

At this point, we have tens of Apple devices here. Let's see, 8 iPhones in regular use, probably 6+ old iPhones used for various games and testing stuff, still have 5 iPod touch in a box but those aren't in use anymore, 4 watches, 4 macbook air/pro in regular use, 3 older macbooks of various types, 6 iPads of various vintages, one Apple TV device, so far 12 airtags, probably 9 of which are in use, and 3 are still in the box until someone needs them for a new piece of luggage/etc. And there are probably some others that I've forgotten. Oh yes, a whole bunch of assorted earpods and airpods. My latest airpod is the pro 2 and I've set them up for hearing assistance as well, but I don't wear them on a regular basis, I mainly use them while at the gym on the elliptical or while watching video sometimes (I prefer my Bose over-the-ear headphones for watching video at home).

Their 10ks and 10qs show no signs of distress or concerns. Their leadership is top flight.

This is indeed true. However, there are some things that don't appear in the 10k or 10q. The main thing that doesn't appear, or at least doesn't appear in any prominent fashion, is valuation. If you look at a PE chart of Apple, you will see that it has trended up over the last decade, and you will see that it is at/near a high, and you will see that it has been there for a while now. That means that the stock price is growing faster, sometimes way faster, than earnings are growing. Obviously that can't keep up forever. So that is something that must be taken into account investing-wise.

Here's a link to such a chart - https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/app...

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Author: suaspontemark   😊 😞
Number: of 55 
Subject: Re: ideas betond BRK
Date: 02/26/2025 11:30 AM
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If you look at a PE chart of Apple, you will see that it has trended up over the last decade, and you will see that it is at/near a high, and you will see that it has been there for a while now. That means that the stock price is growing faster, sometimes way faster, than earnings are growing. Obviously that can't keep up forever.

Indeed. And it's why I'm funding Year 1 of retirement with it! If it stays at nice levels, it might fund Year 2 through X. If it tanks, I might sell something else or not roll the T-bill maturing next January and live off that.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 55 
Subject: Re: ideas betond BRK
Date: 06/27/2025 5:35 PM
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I'm looking (like everyone else) for anything that will beat the S&P index and is safer. It seems the S&P index has been "too high" for a long time.

Not that anybody cares, but I would pick Alphabet over Apple at this juncture. Different strokes. The combination of Apple's realistic growth prospects, valuation, and China risk exposure leave me cool. I would prefer taking the LLM risk to Google keyword search, which I think is a pinch overblown: slowing, not existential.

Looking further afield, try reading about Investor AB. A Sweden-based company, essentially a publicly listed *old* family office, that has some wholly owned subsidiaries with unusually good economic characteristics, and also a public equity portfolio with a good history. Cash flow from those operations is reinvested in acquiring new wholly owned units. Perhaps best valued as book book of the listed items plus a multiple of smoothed earnings on the subs, or as an overall multiple of look-through earnings. Many people use price to book. Seems to be stuffed with conservative, honest management. They don't seem to have Russian operations. Does any of that sound familiar?

They are a bit more international in their equity portfolio, but the operating businesses tend to be closer to home where they know and understand the operating landscape.

Stock returns (in kronor) 15.4%/year in the last 20 years. Includes a modest dividend.

There is a blogger who has very good write-ups about them so you can understand what they're about.
Jan 2024 https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...
Oct 2024, "Part II" https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...
Feb 2025, review of 2024 results https://outsiderscorner.substack.com/p/investor-ab...

Jim
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