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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21943 
Subject: Re: Price to Peak Book and Ratios
Date: 08/14/23 6:35 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Given some cash to put into the market, it seems like now might not be a great time to add to BRK. Thoughts?

Depends on your hold period.
If you're looking at holding the position more than a couple/few years, it doesn't make a whole lot of difference.
It's not as if the stock is wildly overvalued, it's just a little above the modern average.

My various models currently expect returns mostly in the range inflation-3.9% to inflation+4.0% in the next year, median inflation+1.0%. One optimistic outlier expects inflation + 7.0% (bases simply on P/B and price since 2003).
Those aren't awe inspiring short term numbers, so if you'd like something with high odds of looking very good within a year, Berkshire might not be your best short term horse for the race.

The reason for the wide range, and the substantial pessimism of some of them:
Some models use book, some use my value metric, some use a mix of the two.
My value metric is quite a bit more conservative than book at the moment, as it values Apple based on a multiple of earnings rather than current market value.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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