Post New

good morning nola, time for another prediction. Since so many high net worth people are vigorously coming out to support Harris, I believe she has assured them that she opposes a tax on unrealized capital gains, which is great news for us. What she will support IF she wins is another story. Fracking, really? I wonder if Sanders and his pals will support fracking? Pickle time, later bud.

Since so many high net worth people are vigorously coming out to support Harris, I believe she has assured them that she opposes a tax on unrealized capital gains, which is great news for us.

It's interesting that things have changed in recent years so much that in the US, income is no longer a predictor of left/right voting intent at all. (It is predictive in some places in the US, but not overall). Tax policy changes may or may not be nice for the well-to-do, but maybe it doesn't matter that much for the election?

Education level is now a very strong predictor of voting intent in the US, and in the past it was almost useless.

The old rule of thumb (statistically across the US) was rich=right, education not predictive to any meaningful degree.
The new rule of thumb (statistically across the US) is educated=left, income not predictive at all.


In 20 other democracies studied at the same time, the rules and the changes since 1970 have been similar but not so one-poled.
The old rule of thumb was rich and educated=right, poor and uneducated=left.
The new rule of thumb is rich and uneducated=right, poor and educated=left.

From an amazing article in the Economist summarizing some research “Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right”, by Amory Gethin, Clara Martínez-Toledano and Thomas Piketty (working paper, 2021)
"...the relationship between education and ideology began to reverse as early as the 1960s. Every year, the 10% of voters with the most years of schooling gravitated towards left-wing parties, while the remaining 90% slid the other way. By 2000, this had gone on for so long that, as a group, the most educated voters became more left-wing than their less-educated peers. The gap has only grown since then.
This trend is strikingly consistent. It developed just as fast in the 20th century as in the 21st, and appears in almost every Western democracy studied."

Jim

“ the relationship between education and ideology began to reverse as early as the 1960s. Every year, the 10% of voters with the most years of schooling gravitated towards left-wing parties, while the remaining 90% slid the other way. By 2000, this had gone on for so long that, as a group, the most educated voters became more left-wing than their less-educated peers. The gap has only grown since then.
This trend is strikingly consistent. It developed just as fast in the 20th century as in the 21st, and appears in almost every Western democracy studied”. Musk, Chevron, Bezos, Ken Griffin etc all leaving for Fl , Texas, tax friendly states etc away from liberal run states like Cali and New York.

"...“Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right”, by Amory Gethin, Clara Martínez-Toledano and Thomas Piketty (working paper, 2021)"

Here's a link to (the .pdf download for) the whole 150 pp paper:

https://wid.world/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/World...

While mungo has identified the authors' primary conclusion ("In the early postwar decades, social democratic and affiliated
parties represented both the low-education and the low-income electorate, while conservative
and affiliated parties represented both high-education and high-income voters. These party
systems have gradually evolved towards “multi-elite party systems” in most Western
democracies, in which higher-educated elites vote for the left, whereas high-income elites still
vote for the right"), there's a fair amount of other hmmm data on skimming through (I have *not* read the whole thing)

...e.g. comparing non-US Western democracies against each other, there is no consistent correlation of self-reported economic class vs voting for a green party, *but* an almost linear correlation in *every* nation of green party support as a function of age (i.e. age 18-39 > 40-59 >60+)

TL;DR: as science-fiction authors have been using as plot devices for the last hundred years, modestly educated and some moral compass make the best planet colonizers. And neighbors.

-- sutton

Also, although Gethin et al didn't say this, The Economist article Jim referenced concludes as follows:

"Although the authors do not identify a cause for this trend, the simplest explanation is that it stems from growing educational attainment. In 1950 less than 10% of eligible voters in America and Europe had graduated from college. Any party relying on this group for support would have had scant hope of winning elections. In contrast, more than a third of Western adults today have degrees, which is enough to anchor a victorious coalition. And once candidates and parties began catering to educated voters—who often put living in a liberal society above lowering their tax bills—rival politicians could start winning elections by taking the opposite position." (bolding mine)

--sutton
tends to vote for every library and school bond that comes along

Post New

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.