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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 6132 
Subject: Re: OT: Money Manager Performance Based Fee
Date: 06/20/26 10:17 PM
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so if it isn't attractive this year, simply don't do it this year
...
I really liked that strategy when it was discussed in some depth (mostly provided by you) on the BRK board.
But it seemed like "this year" wasn't a great year to get an attractive return, nor the following "this year", ... and so I snoozed it.


As a crude rule of thumb, if VIX is over 25 it's usually easy to find great picks more or less at random, but when it's under 20 you have to be a bit more judicious.

The main thing I changed in the strategy was switching from a diversified (not too closely examined) portfolio to a short set of tickers that I knew reasonably well well.

The thing is, a cash-backed put outperforms the stock if the stock falls a lot, falls a little, breaks even, or rises a little. It underperforms if the stock rises a lot in the option's time interval. My insight is that very few stocks rise a lot in a lot of intervals one after the other, so if you do *repeated* cash backed puts on the same ticker over time you do pretty well. It has to be a firm you trust that the actual value isn't falling, and it isn't overvalued. It works spectacularly on a stock that is very out of fashion but which you believe is supported by value--lots of pessimism means high premiums, and a low and flat stock price, so you get the high premiums sometimes for years at a time. For example, Sears went bankrupt, but I made an IRR of 28% writing puts against it because it took so darned long to fail.

With that in mind, I only had to stop doing put writing on rare occasion when the option premiums are super low on everything.

Jim
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