No. of Recommendations: 10
Perhaps a stupid question and the data could be inaccurate as well, but was scrolling Gurufocus and noticed they have a figure called Shareholder yield which shows for OXY as 24.2pct and they calculate it by adding cash dividends, net stock repurchases, and debt reduction.
Is this essentially what WEB is seeing in Oxy, they are returning all their earning to shareholders and if subject to oil prices eventually this yield should be reflected in a substantially higher share price?
I don't think the question is stupid, I just think it's supremely stupid of Gurufocus to call that shareholder yield.
Dividends go to shareholders as a yield, the other two don't.
It's just a view of their capital allocation, excluding capex: the sum of profits not retained, if you will.
So all it's really saying is that they have been generating spectacular amounts of earnings recently, about $14 in two years. An oil price pop will do that.
Perhaps a similar rate in the next year and a half, at a guess.
Their earnings will always vary with the oil price, but my guess is what Mr Buffett saw was an earnings yield over 10% in the current cycle,
which was generating enough aggregate profit in a short time to eliminate the one thing making the stock cheap: the weak balance sheet.
It will look a lot nicer with $15bn in debt than it did at almost $40bn.
Plus good-enough profits on average thereafter for a good long while, with a willingness to live through the occasional inevitable lean stretches.
Jim
