No. of Recommendations: 10
I've only just read through the indictment, but I've got some initial thoughts:
- As we discussed (at length!) in other threads, all of the charges directly related to possessing the classified documents are under the "unlawful retention" of defense information section. IOW, they're not alleging that Trump committed a crime by taking classified documents with him from the White House, or keeping classified documents in an unsecured location. They're only charging him for breaking the law when he refused to give the documents relating to defense information back. That's why there's only 31 counts on that point, instead of over 300 (the number of documents with classification markings he originally had) or 100 (the number he held back after returning some to the Archive) - only 31 of the 100+ classified documents related to national defense. It also obviates any question of whether the documents remained classified or not, since that's not an element of the statute.
- The conspiracy and obstruction charges are brutal. They're alleging that Trump gave the order to move boxes, hide documents, and mislead his attorney. He knew the government was trying to get the docs back and had a subpoena, and he allegedly ordered his "body man" to hide half of it. And they apparently have a contemporaneous text message from said bodyman telling a Trump family member that Trump had told him to move the boxes. Not great, Bob....
- ....BUT! there isn't a factual allegation that Trump was aware of the specific contents of the boxes or documents. That's probably Trump's strongest defense, at least as to those 31 counts: arguing that in order to establish that he "willfully" retained national defense documents, the government has to prove he knew they were national defense documents. The DOJ will certainly argue that hiding/moving the boxes is circumstantial evidence that he knew he was doing wrong, but they don't have a smoking gun to put knowledge of the contents in his cranium.....
- ...EXCEPT! we have a co-defendant in said bodyman. He's looking at a long, long stretch on the obstruction, concealing and lying charges if the DOJ can get a conviction. Unlike Trump, he can't wriggle off by claiming lack of knowledge or denying he gave the order. Lots of pressure on him to flip....
- ...AND! we have Trump Attorneys #1-3 being let off the hook completely. The statement of facts paints them as having been deceived by the concealment scheme, not participating in it. And clearly Trump Attorney 1 is cooperating with DOJ, giving them information about what Trump directed them to do with the documents that were located in the storage room.
* * *
So all in all, a mixed bag if I'm trying to defend DJT. I don't like that they have eyewitnesses and a contemporary text to support a claim that Trump knew that boxes were being moved around. And I'm really unhappy that they were able to bring charges against Nauta. But I'm pretty encouraged by the fact that there isn't anything in the indictment to show DJT having actual knowledge of any of the specific 31 documents, and are instead bringing in the tape and some other incidents as circumstantial evidence to show DJT knew he had stuff he shouldn't be showing people.
