No. of Recommendations: 10
Most companies have trouble earning their costs of equity and capital, but if you look at the aggregated values, there are multiple sectors in the US (technology, consumer goods and communication services) that earn double digit excess returns, pointing again to larger companies within these sectors being able to set themselves apart from the rest.
there is not a single geography where more than 50% of firms earn more than their required returns, with Japan ranking highest in percentages and Canada and Australia the lowest. Here again, the aggregated values tell a different story, with US companies collectively delivering excess returns of 8.44% on equity and 1.81% on capital, suggesting again that large US companies carry the weight of value creation in the market.
it seems to me that over the last four decades, moats have crumbled, partly as a result of global competition and partly because of disruption (which upends businesses, turning good businesses to bad ones), and the business landscape has tilted more decisively to larger firms, as more and more businesses become winner(s)-take-all. It is in this context that I take a more jaundiced view of what AI will do for company profitability and value. I believe that, as a disruptor, it will cause downward pressure on margins at most firms, and increase the advantages that larger firms have in each business.
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/data-update...I thought this was an excellent analysis backed up by comprehensive dataset on profitability of companies across the globe.
