No. of Recommendations: 3
You can't ensure Iran never has a nuclear weapon by destroying things they have today. You can't reduce Iran's capabilities to develop and launch ballistic missiles and cut them off from their terror proxies going forward by destroying things today. Because as long as the regime continues to control the country, they can always restart these things and get back to where they are now within a year or two. If not faster.
Well that depends, doesn't it?
Even 60 Minutes had to swallow it and admit that a) yes, Iran has enough material for a number of bombs and b) they've been cheating and lying for 20 years about (which puts Paid to the absurd talking point that they only started things back up after Trump cancelled The Most Holy Obama's JCPOA deal).
It will come down to their nuclear material. One doesn't just get Mahamoud and Bijan together and tell them to go whip you up some HEU. It's more complicated than that.
But Iran doesn't further any of these goals.
Yes it does. I've outlined why at least 4 times now. Loads of other national writers are starting to figure out the grand moves behind everything we're doing right now. Doing Venezuela, doing Iran and securing a defense agreement over the Straits Of Malacca adds up to one thing: countering China.
China's got more influence over world trade choke points now,
Do they, now.
Are they still in effective control of the Panama canal?
Say, how wide are the Straits of Malacca? (about 2 miles). What do you think an agreement to "pursue asymmetric Naval warfare and defense" with Indonesia (and its literal thousands of islands) means for them in that body of water? IIRC ~80% of their commercial trade goes. Right. Through. There. If they bomb Taiwan, what do you suppose happens in the SoM?
And Hormuz? Say, how much oil is getting out and going to China from Iranian wells? That'd be 0 barrels per day.
Similarly, the U.S. is going to have less influence over Hormuz once the war is over, because Iran will have demonstrated they have the unilateral ability to close it against the wishes of the U.S.
You missed some things.
1, literally hundreds of oil tankers are heading pell-mell across the Atlantic to dock in Texas and Louisiana. They're not going there for Spring Break.
2, Iran has no Navy. No Air Force. And interestingly, doesn't seem to be using heavy weapons on anyone to "close" the strait. Even Bill had to admit that "gunboat" might just mean a couple of guys with AKs running their Mercury outboards at full throttle.
3, The ties to the Gulf States have never been stronger. You think we're not going to continue to have a large presence there? Or get financial help to build even more?
4, a "40 nation coalition led by the UK and France" is going to patrol the strait and keep it open. Have you no faith in the mighty Navies of NATO? Or maybe you'd like to agree with my assessment of their power projection capabilities now?
