No. of Recommendations: 2
We probably are not looking at the trail from the bullet that hit Trump.
Let's do some math. And I'll point out that I'm only doing this because Trump was not seriously injured. I would not want to go into this detail if he were, because I believe that would be inappropriate.
Approximate distance from shooter to stage: 450 feet, 150 yards
Approx speed of AR-15 round: 3300 feet per second
Approx speed of sound: 1100 feet per second.
450 feet at 3300 feet per second means the round arrives in the area of the stage in about 0.13 seconds.
450 feet at 1100 feet per second means the sound of the shot arrives at the microphone about 0.41 seconds after the trigger is pulled.
I've gone back and watched the video multiple times (which, unfortunately, I don't have any handy tools for, so it's just slowing down the YouTube video to catch details), and I can see him flinch his right shoulder between the sound of the first shot and the echo. My guess is that is the round that hit him in the ear. He instinctively flinches to the pain before more consciously moving his hand toward his ear. His hand doesn't arrive at his ear until after the sound of the second shot is heard.
A typical reaction time for a human to an expected stimulus is about .25 seconds. That could be adjusted for age and the difference between an expected and unexpected stimulus, which are likely to be important. Children and older people have longer reaction times. And the reaction to an unexpected stimulus is slightly slower.
The flinch happens between the sound of the first shot and it's echo. Let's put some things on a time line, starting with the bullet leaving the gun. And I'm using my previous work on the time of the sounds at the microphone. From those sounds, I can use the speed of sound to go back to when the shot was fired and then up to when the bullet would have arrived at the stage.
0.00 first bullet leaves gun
0.13 first bullet arrives at stage
0.41 first sound arrives at stage
??? first reaction
0.63 echo arrives at stage
0.86 second bullet leaves gun
0.99 second bullet arrives at stage
1.27 sound of second shot arrives at stage
??? hand arrives at ear
The flinch happens between the sound and the echo of the first shot, so maybe 0.4 seconds after the bullet hit his ear. And well before the second shot was fired. That strikes me as being in line with an adjusted reaction time for Trump based on his age and that the stimulus was unexpected.
Now, going back to the photo, my belief is that is the bullet itself and not some kind of lingering visual effect from the bullet passing. His hand is already in the air moving toward his ear. As he was speaking, his hand was clearly on the podium, holding the edge of it. His hand is already in motion when the second shot arrived.
The timing is very consistent with the photo showing the second bullet. The flinch and hand motion to his ear is consistent with the first bullet hitting his ear.
--Peter
