Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
No. of Recommendations: 21
“Sixty-one days ago,” he said, “President Trump unilaterally began the war in Iran. He had no coherent strategy. He refused to make a case to the American people or consult Congress. He failed to present any evidence of an immediate threat, and he ignored the advice of military and intelligence experts who warned him of the consequences. Today our nation is in a worse strategic position. The Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it is closed. Thirteen service members have tragically lost their lives, and more than 400 have been wounded. We have lost dozens of aircraft, sustained significant damage to our bases in the area, and expended an alarming amount of our missile inventory. Morale and readiness across the force, especially among overdeployed units and vessels like the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, have suffered. Gasoline and fertilizer prices throughout the world have surged. American families are bearing the cost of a war they wanted nothing to do with and have gained nothing from.” —Senator Jack Reed, Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member, to Pete Hegseth, Liquor Cabinet Appointee
No. of Recommendations: 2
He had no coherent strategy.
He has a strategy. It would not be politically acceptable to say it out loud, but he has a strategy.
The Iran operation is, at least, 50% about enriching big oil. It's a happy coincidence, that "Bibi" wants to knock off the Iranian regime.
How do I figure this?
Trump is not actively participating in the Israeli operation to lay waste to Lebanon, like Saint Reagan did, so Trump is not entirely acting as a bought dog of Israel.
The more I see, the more sure I am the Iranian op is entirely about taking other people's production off line, to enrich big oil. That is why Trump the Conqueror is not going all in on overthrowing the Iranian regime quickly. The stalemate, with a blocked Strait, is the desired outcome. That requires the current Iranian regime stay in place, to provide the casus belli.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 17
That is why Trump the Conqueror is not going all in on overthrowing the Iranian regime quickly. The stalemate, with a blocked Strait, is the desired outcome. That requires the current Iranian regime stay in place, to provide the casus belli.
I think you're making the same mistake that MAGA world is making. Trump is not a genius. He's not playing four dimensional chess. He's losing at checkers.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Did we really lose "dozens of aircraft"? I don't think I've heard that before. A few, yes, but dozens?
No. of Recommendations: 3
No. of Recommendations: 0
Trump is not a genius. He's not playing four dimensional chess.Decades ago, I heard a story about Henry Kaiser. He was in a meeting with, iirc, government honchos. They asked Henry if he could make a particular thing. Henry turned to one of his staff and asked them to explain what the thing was, to him. After listening to the explanation, Henry told the government honchos, yes, he could make it.
In Trump the Conqueror's case, big oil probably explained, in that meeting in the summer of 24, that there was too much oil in the market, they wanted someone else's production disrupted, to tighten supply, like Bush 43 did for them, and gave him a $1B check to make it happen.
As I have said before: buying Rodriguez, snatching Maduro, motivating the President of Panama to evict Hutchison from the ports near the Canal, then launching a sneak attack on Iran, did not all happen, in the space of two months, by accident. Someone was playing 17D chess, even if Trump is only the corrupt front man that the interests threw money at, to make it all happen.
who is Henry Kaiser?
Henry John Kaiser (May 9, 1882 – August 24, 1967) was an American industrialist who became known for his shipbuilding and construction projects, then later for his involvement in fostering modern American health care.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_J._KaiserSteve
No. of Recommendations: 10
As I have said before: buying Rodriguez, snatching Maduro, motivating the President of Panama to evict Hutchison from the ports near the Canal, then launching a sneak attack on Iran, did not all happen, in the space of two months, by accident. Someone was playing 17D chess, even if Trump is only the corrupt front man that the interests threw money at, to make it all happen.
Could be. But if you're not looking at Putin you're not seeing the whole picture. Putin is Trump's puppet master. I could believe Putin engineered it all, to raise Russia's energy income, collapse NATO, and advance his ambition to take Urkaine and ultimately dominate Europe. Venezuela is Putin's small trade with Trump to make it happen. Trump is the guy at the poker table who doesn't know who the sucker is.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Wikipedia lists 55 aircraft for the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_sho...Most of those are Reaper drones. I don't think it's a reasonable count. Drones are defenseless and expendable. If you're counting Reapers you could also count Tomahawk missiles, which are meant to be spent.
No. of Recommendations: 0
I could believe Putin engineered it all, to raise Russia's energy income,
I don't think so. Putin would not have cared about what happened in Venezuela or Panama. Neither would "Bibi". This is all too well coordinated to be an accident. And Trump the Conqueror, loves to brag about all the tankers on their way to the US to load, because the Strait is closed.
It may make you feel dirty to admit it, but Trump had some very good advice about creating a crisis, for the benefit of big oil. Bush 43 was a dunce too, but well connected in the oil patch. He created a crisis for their benefit too, by taking Iraq off line.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 2
Wikipedia lists 55 aircraft for the US.
Ah, thanks. Lots of drones, including 24 General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers!
No. of Recommendations: 8
Decades ago, I heard a story about Henry Kaiser. He was in a meeting with, iirc, government honchos. They asked Henry if he could make a particular thing. Henry turned to one of his staff and asked them to explain what the thing was, to him. After listening to the explanation, Henry told the government honchos, yes, he could make it.
What was the particular thing? Enquiring minds want to know! :)
Remember Occam's razor - roughly - the simplest answer is usually the best. If you could find a cite for that meeting with Kaiser that would help, industrialist's do have meetings. I think you are reading too much into this. Trump was listening to Israel, MBS, and out hard liners.even now I hear MBS wants boots on the ground for regime change. He was warned, but didn't think this would happen.
This is a bad place to be. We have someone like Trump deciding whether to put boots on the ground in Iran and a stalemate - Iran can hold out for a long time - longer than the end of Trump's Presidency. So we have this rich, griftng bub, profiting off the Presidency, his minions ignore it, want to believe in 4D chess. Dope says lets wait for the plan to play out while insisting there's a plan. My unit, the 82d, is there along with marines. Trump needs to come up with something he can claim is better than Obama, defuse this thing, bring the oil prices back down and get out of there. MBS and Israel want regime change. Me no like this.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Henry Kaiser built his own health care project while building the Bonneville dam in the Columbia Gorge because buying health care from established health plans was too expensive. After the dam was completed, he walked away from health care. The doctors he had hired were so pleased with the system they had, that they continued Kaiser Health Plan in the Pacific Northwest and it spread from there. Later the health plan was spun off from the Permanente Medical Group but with contractual obligations of one to the other.
So, Henry Kaiser had a role in the beginning of the first HMO but did not really foster it beyond his own needs to provide health care for his workers.
fd
No. of Recommendations: 5
MQ-9 Reapers are $30 million a copy. During my time in the AF that was the price of an F-15 A model.
No. of Recommendations: 3
What was the particular thing? Enquiring minds want to know! :)
I don't recall if the particular item was even mentioned in the story I read.
This is what the net sifter says:
The story you're referring to highlights Henry J. Kaiser's reputation as a "can-do" industrialist who focused on production speed rather than technical jargon, often diving into new industries (ships, steel, cement) without prior experience.
While variations of this anecdote exist, it fits within the context of his massive World War II shipbuilding efforts. When government officials or representatives from the British Admiralty would approach him in Washington or at his [Richmond, California shipyards] with complex, urgent requirements, Kaiser would often accept the contract immediately before fully grasping the technical details.
The Typical Scenario:
The Ask: A government official would outline a new, complex vessel or specialized engineering request for the war effort.
The Response: Kaiser, known for his "Together We Build" slogan and speed, would say something to the effect of: "We can build it.".
The Question: Immediately after the official left, Kaiser would turn to one of his top engineers or aides (often [Clay Bedford], his key shipyard manager) and ask, "Now, what the hell is it?".
This anecdote highlights his trust in his team to solve technical problems, focusing himself on logistics, labor, and massive scale production, which allowed him to reduce Liberty ship construction time from months to days.
the second part of your two part question:
Trump was listening to Israel, MBS, and out hard liners.even now I hear MBS wants boots on the ground for regime change.
"Bibi" wants regime change, or a failed state, in Iran. He would not care about Venezuela or Panama. MBS would be all for the Strait being closed, because Saudi's pipeline to the Red Sea can handle virtually all of Saudi's normal export volume. Saudi would benefit from the Strait being closed by competitors being knocked off line, because Saudi export volume is unimpeded, while reaping higher prices.
It is only Trump the Conqueror's personal greed that brings Venezuela and Panama into the operation.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 3
i call utter nonsense on some grand trump strategy here.
let's not forget that fossil was the only negative sector EVERY YEAR under trump 1.0, now sanctified as the most transcendent economy of all time.
outside of winning 2/3 elections, most if not all the rest trump has done his entire life shows no indication of a grand strategy, but comes with plenty of retrospective claims of 5d chess.
but most importantly, since grift rises above all, the current verifiable proof is that trump has made more money from griftcoins+djt+bibles than fossil. show us clear evidence of personal profits!
and by the way, i am more than willing to accept trump can and will waste taxpayers' $10^12 to make measly millions for himself.
regarding grift without direct evidence, i am more likely to believe the trump crime family wealth has gained the most via insider mkt trading, where even billions in grift is just noise inside the scale of liquidity.
No. of Recommendations: 2
i call utter nonsense on some grand trump strategy here.
Any 15 year old, playing Risk, could work out that strategy. Trump does not need to figure it out himself. Anyone who gets his ear could tell him what a big shot he would be, and how much money he would pocket, if he did it.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 2
again, show me verifiable money pocketed directly by trump from fossil bribes and stocks.
it needs to be somewhere in the ballpark of his other scams...
e.g., trump org biz deals during private trade\tariff talks.
maybe trump thought it would be a great personal grift and wasn't, hormuz implications irrelevant?
just asking for 3rd-party proof of his gains, not post-dated grand strategy documents.
No. of Recommendations: 0
again, show me verifiable money pocketed directly by trump from fossil bribes and stocks.Is this ballparky enough?
Trump pressed oil executives to give $1 billion for his campaign, people in industry say
Former President Donald Trump asked oil industry executives last month to donate $1 billion to aid his campaign to retake the White House, three people familiar with the conversation told POLITICO — a request that campaign finance experts said appeared troubling but is probably legal.
The request, first reported Thursday by The Washington Post, occurred during a meeting of industry executives at the former president’s home in Palm Beach, Florida.https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/09/trump-ask...Oil bigwigs open wallets for Trump after billion-dollar request https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4961...Steve
No. of Recommendations: 14
again, show me verifiable money pocketed directly by trump from fossil bribes and stocks.
it needs to be somewhere in the ballpark of his other scams...
e.g., trump org biz deals during private trade\tariff talks.
Not everything is a grift, and the absence of a visible grift isn't proof that it's not Trump's plan. Apart of the grift, Trump wants to cultivate himself as a historic figure like Julius Caesar, Napoleon, Hitler, and most importantly Putin. He admires and envies Putin. He wants Putin's ability to jail or kill his opponents, to control the outcome of elections, and he sees Putin's petrostate oligarchic economy as a model for the American economy.
No. of Recommendations: 4
of course its not everything, it's just trump's 3rd priority since 2020.
a. staying out of prison
b. grift
c. glory\ego
all 'gop' things like religion, fiscal and economic policy, defense, recent love of fossil...are all subverted to 3 above.
and in fact are unrecognizably conflated among his supporters.
No. of Recommendations: 6
yes, i would call $1b via campaign donations a good start, in exchange for a war and global recession.
but this is because trump feels every political dollar is actually his dollar for whatever purpose, and pretty dares anyone to do something about it.
but its certainly no $6b fusion+crypto+tweeting scam shop, no war required :
https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equit...and i am sure the deals involving trump biz entities in a foreign countries exceeds even this.
No. of Recommendations: 2
yes, i would call $1b via campaign donations a good start, in exchange for a war and global recession.
Not "in exchange" for war and recession. *He* isn't paying the $25B and counting cost of his war, the government is. The US military, and civilian, dead and injured are immaterial, because they are Proles, thus expendable meat. It's all upside for Trump the Conqueror, all loot, no consequences.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 4
again, no qualms re: trump wasting others' $$$ for the smallest personal grift, or even for fun.
that is basically his entire biz history.
just being realistic about this being HIS big payoff, which i doubt. much more to come.
No. of Recommendations: 4
just being realistic about this being HIS big payoff, which i doubt. much more to come.
Maybe not his fattest, single, scam. But, a Billion here, and Billion there. After a while, you're talking real money.
Steve
