Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (30) |
Author: mechinv   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: End of an era - profit slowdown
Date: 12/14/23 5:10 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 3
Here is a historical chart of the 10 year bond yield

Yes, that's exactly the chart I referenced when I made the point that the S&P 500 still delivered a total return of 28% during a 3-year period (2004-2006) when interest rate levels were similar to today's 5% level.

If you had listened to a pessimist who wrote an academic paper on why you should avoid the market because interest rates had risen to 5%, you would have given up 28% of compounded gains, to the detriment of your retirement.

At first glance it would appear there is very little correlation between the rates and equity returns.

It's not just at first glance. You'll see it on the chart on your 2nd and 3rd glance as well.

Interest rates dropped significantly from 2000 - 2010 yet stock returns were pretty dismal.

Yep. This again shows the lack of a clear correlation between interest rates and market returns. There may be a vague correlation but it's not consistently actionable.

So keep dollar cost averaging into the market even during downturns like 2000-2010, thereby snapping up shares of quality companies at bargain prices. People who did this became 401K millionaires during the decade that followed, and there are tens of thousands of us. What we most certainly did not do is to listen to pessimists and their gloom and doom forecasts.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mechinv here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,454 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (30) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community