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*                         2/13     2/20     2/27     3/6/23
S&P 500 Index             4090.46  4079.09  3970.04  4045.64
Trailing 12 month PE      23.40    23.78    23.12    23.58
Trail Earnings yield      4.27%    4.21%    4.33%    4.24%
Forward 12 month PE       20.32    20.28    19.71    20.12   
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.92%    4.93%    5.07%    4.97%
90 day tbill yield        4.79     4.84     4.86     4.91
10 year tbond yield       3.74%    3.82%    3.95%    3.97%
Arezi Ratio               1.12     1.15     1.12     1.16
Fed Ratio                 0.76     0.77     0.78     0.80

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 62%
stocks, 38% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 42%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 85%.

Elan

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