No. of Recommendations: 33
Excuse the length of this post - I am on vacation and have some time on my hands.
The recent threads here about selling BRK (or APPL or anything else) based on market price and its relationship to book, as opposed to deciding if you are invested in a great company that will continue to be great and make money into the forseeble future -- largely ignoring market price except in extreme situations -- seem very un-WEB-like and un-Charlie-like to me, and they surprise me a little. Math is important, but it isn't everything.
I have held BRK for almost 30 years, through runups and LONG periods where the stock hardly seemed to move. When it fell (rarely), I bought more. I have done the same with AAPL, GLW, and am doing it now with DIS and PFE. (DG did not work out for me , and I resisted HSY and NSRGY.) I'm not an analyst, but I do follow the companies I invest in, both before and after, and I will exit regardless of price if the business is not performing as I expected or I lose confidence in the CEO (that's what happened with DG.) Stock price is not a factor in my decison-making except in the abstract. It is what it is. I'm much more interested in how the businesses are doing and who is running them. If I need money I tend to sell my laggards and let my winners run. My perspective is very long-term. I hate to lose money so I rarely speculate except when it is obviously easy money. It turns out I am usually not smarter than the other guy lol. I am on this board for fun and because I love BRK and the people who invest in it. It's a very unique company. IMO, the stock price rarely reflects its value, even now.
My take is that Greg is building a A-Team of managers to run the incredible portfolio of companies that WEB acquired over his lifetime. I have no idea how Pilot is doing, but I know Adam Wright has taken over, and that's all I need to know. Todd Coombs has his detractors, but what he is doing at GEICO is almost literally unbelievable. Others here must have their favorite BRK managers. I predict that a lot of great managers who hate working for jerks will now come to BRK. I also predict that BRK's current weakness (underperforming portfolio companies) will once again become its strength. Finally, I predict that BRK's stock market income will decline, but that will not be a sign that BRK has lost its touch but rather that it has regained it, because other earnings will increase. We are just starting to see it, and WEB's cash pile will guarantee that Greg has all the time he needs. When Greg and his team are ready, they will start buying companies again. Or he will sell them if that makes more sense. That's when the board of directors will become relevant.
I have no idea what Omaha is going to do with all the profits, but that's someone else's problem and I am not worried. And I am not selling.
Here's to the Managers! Here's to the long-term view!
abromber
