No. of Recommendations: 2
continuing my contrarian (cal-maine, jan2026) protein theme...
bellring has a few things uncommon to value traps :
_high trailing ROA and ROIC
_top running consumer protein drink rating score (amazon #1 in both rating and #reviews) with vast majority of sales in the mid\affordable tier
(low carb with highest flavor variety)
common to value traps :
_low trailing price multiples (book,fcf,earnings)
_melting cube thesis (new vibe brands, bigbox white labels,....)
_narrow niche
_debt:equity ~1
unlike recently, when shares were >4X higher, the large brand spending has appeared to work.
assume much lower brbr mkt maintenance rate, and at least 50% as much needed for any new brand to scale.
am not much excited regarding american companies, but this has good alignment with einhorn's modern take on value investing with no re-rating expected. plus, good foreign falling knives are ignoring my lowball limit bids.
No. of Recommendations: 1
well brbr seems a bust. smaller competitors reported collapse in april, and scale didnt help brbr.
unsure if even larger players (e.g., pepsi) in milk protein niche had same issues.
both coke and pepsi are benefiting from >10x larger distribution of broader stuff.
