No. of Recommendations: 14
I suspect that WEB looks at it like this - as long as T-bills yield is higher than earnings yield on the S&P500, may as well stick with T-bills for un-deployed cash. When interest rates start going down (probably during next recession), then there are a few choices:
1. Find interesting and fairly valued companies and buy them. Maybe Chubb. Maybe Occidental. Etc.
2. Or buy shares in "merely good" companies. Perhaps add to current positions a bit, and perhaps add some others.
3. Buy the S&P500 as the interim holding (instead of T-bills) and sell [part of] it if something really good, and big, comes along.
It should be noted that Mr Buffett has said that the even if T-bill yields were low it would not change the fact that he'd be holding so many of them them. i.e., the currently high yields on T-bills are not a factor determining how many Berkshire holds, they just make the chosen situation more pleasant. So a fourth option would be "keep holding T-bills even at low rates until some better opportunity comes up".
Historically there has always been another opportunity coming along soon enough to make the wait worthwhile. Given the difficulties of allocating a half trillion in a hurry, in future the opportunity may be merely "good enough". Which would, tautologically, be good enough.
Jim
