I would suspect prices will continue to rise as oil is restricted. At some point, we should start seeing increased trades/purchases favoring smaller vehicles and EVs.

We'll see. Cars last for many years. Unlike the 2008 oil price spike, there's an obvious short-term reason why gas prices are vastly higher than they were a few months ago. So while there might be some modest changes in consumer behavior, I wouldn't count on it. After all, SUV's made up about 74% of California's light vehicle sales in 2025, and gas prices haven't been below $4.00 per gallon there since 2020.

On a side note, got back from Europe. Europeans might want bigger vehicles (as you posted elsewhere), but that's not what I saw the roads. Mostly smaller sedans, Minis, lots of Teslas and other EVs (including ID3, which we can't get here, and ID4). The only vans I saw were business-related (tour vans, delivery vans, and the like). I suspect it is largely from the necessity due to petrol prices and much smaller roads.

It's probably more likely a function of fleet inertia and where you happened to be. In 2025, SUV's made up approximately 60% of European light vehicle sales. Sedans were only 3.5%.

motor1.com - Suv sales dominate europe

But that's probably not going to be obvious for most tourists visiting Europe, who are far more likely to be visiting city centers and cultural sites well served by mass-transit, rather than suburban single-family detached residential neighborhoods. And since cars last for quite a long time, it takes many years for current trends in auto preferences to predominate in the existing fleet. The typical car on the European roads is going to be from the 2010's (or older), not what's popular among new car buyers today.