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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: article: How a dollar crisis would unfold
Date: 04/17/25 2:56 PM
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> "Are you implying that it would be the main currency?"

I honestly don't know. I think my perception of China is a little different than yours. It is not rosy, but unfortunately they are taking the lead from the US in terms of the largest economy in all metris. They are clearly the most important manufacturing economy in the world. They are likely to be or soon be at least on equal footing militarily.

And while China's not a notable champion of freedom, they feel like a more reliable partner than the US does currently.

From the perspective of the article, CNY feels far more relevant than any cryptocurrency does for reserve status. Countries will already have need and use for CNY in trade. I think that it is more likely that a number of countries that considered the US reliable enough to use as an exclusive reserve currency won't feel that way and will increasingly use a basket of USD, CNY, and EUR. OPEC obviously contains literal enemies of the US and they would like nothing more than to break the petrodollar. The US will have much less leverage, and won't be able to finance it's debt as easily... and it will have a snowball effect on our economy which may shift reserve basket weights, etc, etc.

I don't know that the perception of China's financial troubles are much worse than the US's perception post-"Global Financial Crisis". I think it is more likely that countries will be concerned their prior leverage of economic deals and partnerships with weaker countries in Africa and BRI projects. It would also seem like a nonstarter until they let the CNY float freely, which seems unlikely.
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