Post New

In his 'victory' speech this evening, Dementia Don spent more time attacking Nikki Haley than he did thanking New Hampshire voters, even whining about her "fancy dress." He threatened her, saying he could reveal information that would lead to her investigation.

Haley, in her speech, said: "With Donald Trump, you would have one bout of chaos after another: This court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment."

And Haley said: "With Trump, Republicans have lost almost every competitive election. We've lost the senate, we've lost the house, we lost the white house, we lost in 2018. We lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022."

Her crowd replied with: "Trump’s a loser!"

Meanwhile, MTG said Haley's numbers are fake: "Nikki Haley doesn’t have this much support."

What the numbers suggest so far:

Trump predicted he'd win by 30 points. Looks like he'll win by about 12.

Official polling said Trump would win by 22 points. So much for polling.

Elections analyst Dave Wasserman called the race for Biden (who was not even on the ballot) before he was comfortable calling the race for Trump (although that came shortly after).

Haley crushed Trump with Independents.

Best line of the night came from Haley: "The other day, Donald Trump accused me of not providing security at the capitol on January 6th."

Looks like Trump did poorly with college educated and young voters.

Haley has an ad buy in SC... we'll see how long she wants to hang around. Unless she does remarkably well in SC, no reason to drag this on. Maybe she's hoping for something interesting when Trump testifies this week (still a coin toss that he takes the stand).

"That's All Folks!"

"Haley has an ad buy in SC... we'll see how long she wants to hang around. Unless she does remarkably well in SC, no reason to drag this on."

I think Nikki Haley has every reason to drag this on as long as she can. She could lose every state from here to the convention, but if something happens to Donald Trump (criminal conviction, drops dead of a heart attack, starts showing even more severe cognitive decline etc.) by remaining in the race, Haley would have the best claim to be the nominee.

I think her staying in the race is just betting on something catastrophic happening to Trump, and that might not be a bad bet.

I think Nikki Haley has every reason to drag this on as long as she can. She could lose every state from here to the convention, but if something happens to Donald Trump (criminal conviction, drops dead of a heart attack, starts showing even more severe cognitive decline etc.) by remaining in the race, Haley would have the best claim to be the nominee.

I think her staying in the race is just betting on something catastrophic happening to Trump, and that might not be a bad bet.

As we discussed in the other thread, I think this overlook the procedures and mechanics of how these conventions work. Under modern nominating rules, the delegates who actually go to a convention are (mostly) pledged to a particular candidate, so who the delegates are doesn't have much of an effect on who the nominee is in normal circumstances. However, the delegates are still chosen through a process.

About a quarter are chosen by the candidate's campaign, the rest are chosen by state convention committees - which are pretty Trump-y and MAGA these days. Those delegates are going to be very Trumpy crowd, the overwhelming majority will come from the MAGA wing of the party.

That's not a convention that's going to pick Haley if she doesn't have a majority of pledged delegates. So her "I'm the back-up" is only viable until about mid-March. After that, slightly more than half of the delegates will have been pledged to Trump - so if he drops dead after that, she won't have enough pledged delegates to prevail at the convention. If Trump's got the majority, his delegates will (presumably) be released from their pledges and can vote for who they want. They are probably not going to pick Haley, and have no obligation to do so just because she's still an active candidate. Most likely they'd pick De Santis, maybe someone else - but Trumpworld is going to hate Haley by then, so she's unlikely to be the choice.

So this is a very short-term play, and really only if Trump dies. He's not going to be convicted before April (and he'd probably keep running anyway), and even if he starts to suffer more severe cognitive decline he (or his family) will still want him to be in control of the convention, so he's not dropping out.

albaby1: So this is a very short-term play, and really only if Trump dies.

Haley has a couple of options. Option 1: spend the next month in South Carolina holding town hall meetings to explain to anyone and everyone who'll listen that preserving democracy is more important bending the knee to Trump, a man who is unworthy of the presidency, a hate-filled, Hitler-quoting, top secret documents stealing, insurrection inciting, fake electoral vote peddling, defaming and defrauding incoherent rapist, thereby ending her campaign by doing her part to keep a dictator out of the White House.

Option 2: she can continue to run a mediocre campaign that buckles under to Trump's blackmail threat -- TRUMP: "I could tell you five reasons why already, not big reasons, little stuff that she doesn’t want to talk about, but she will be under investigation in minutes" -- and watch her campaign end in South Carolina anyway.

Either way, South Carolina is the end of the road.

Unless in the next four weeks Trump starts talking in tongues or barking like a dog at his rallies, neither of which is outside the realm of possibility.

Liberals moved in Trump's direction on immigration.

And the other greedy 401K'ers love their AMT reform.


But how's it feel that Trump stuck the greedy pigs with SALT:)

Option 1: spend the next month in South Carolina holding town hall meetings to explain to anyone and everyone who'll listen that preserving democracy is more important bending the knee to Trump, a man who is unworthy of the presidency, a hate-filled, Hitler-quoting, top secret documents stealing, insurrection inciting, fake electoral vote peddling, defaming and defrauding incoherent rapist, thereby ending her campaign by doing her part to keep a dictator out of the White House.

I mean, she certainly can do that. But it's almost certainly futile. The electorate that will be voting in the upcoming primary has already rejected those premises (for the most part). They don't believe Trump is a danger to democracy, they don't believe he's unworthy of the Presidency, and they don't believe he is (or will be) a dictator. There's no audience for that message in the overwhelming majority of South Carolinians who currently support Trump, and no one's showing up to her town halls that isn't already in the minority of Republicans that already believe that. Trump's choice to skip all the debates turned out to be a great call for him - none of the participating candidates were elevated, and now he is in perfect position to simply declare himself the presumptive nominee and all-but-ignore Haley except to deride her. She's not going to get him on a debate stage, so she's never going to get a chance to present her message to his voters for cheap.

There's no shortage of people who can (and do) say those things about Trump in the world. Remaining a candidate isn't necessary for Haley to keep saying those things, if she wants - and it no longer gets her much of an audience. The real question is whether remaining a candidate will accomplish anything. It might put her in a position to take the nomination if Trump drops out of the race in the next two months. Other than that, it's somewhat pointless - because Haley won't be the nominee even if he drops out if it's after mid-March or so.

Option 3: Haley continues to campaign heavily in all future primaries, working the crowds (she's apparently great at connecting with people 1 on 1), continue to win over independents and the "Nikki curious", fluster Trump by refusing to surrender, and thereby distract Trump from fighting Biden unopposed. She has no hope of being Trump's VP regardless, and there's always still 2028 to try again if she wants.

albaby1: I mean, she certainly can do that. But it's almost certainly futile.

Sure, which is why I said both options have the same ending: her campaign is over.

albaby1: Remaining a candidate isn't necessary for Haley to keep saying those things, if she wants - and it no longer gets her much of an audience.

It keeps her in the news cycle. And that's why Trump wants her out now. Have you seen DeSantis in the news since he dropped out? Nope.

It keeps her in the news cycle. And that's why Trump wants her out now. Have you seen DeSantis in the news since he dropped out? Nope.

I live in Florida, for my sins. I can't ever escape De Santis being in the news cycle.

It keeps her in the news cycle a little, but not much and not for long - and to little effect, I suspect. I think the same thing happens to her as happened to the other GOP also-rans once they stopped qualifying for debates and their candidacies became hopeless - they also disappeared from the news cycle while they were still running (poor Doug Burgum). She'll get some coverage around the SC primary, but very little in the weeks leading up to it.

That might be worth it - I was just pushing back on the idea that there's some value for her to stay in the race as an "emergency back-up candidate" to Trump. Again, unless he keels over very soon, that's just not going to happen for Haley. A convention of Trump delegates isn't going to pick Haley to replace a deceased Trump, whether she's still in the race or not.

I live in Florida, for my sins. I can't ever escape De Santis being in the news cycle.

Kinda similar, maybe not quite as bad as sharing a state with Josh Hawley. LOL


WTH

I live in Florida, for my sins. I can't ever escape De Santis being in the news cycle. - albaby

Kinda similar, maybe not quite as bad as sharing a state with Josh Hawley. LOL


WTH

---------------------

Sorry, not everyone can expect to be as fortunate as me with Greg Abbott.

Sorry, not everyone can expect to be as fortunate as me with Greg Abbott.

Jay Inslee is my governor here in WA. There’s not a single lib on this board that would trade their governor for him.

And that tells you something.

Dope: Jay Inslee is my governor here in WA. There’s not a single lib on this board that would trade their governor for him.

And that tells you something.

This slight left of center guy will let you have De Santis for Inslee.

Jay Inslee is my governor here in WA. There’s not a single lib on this board that would trade their governor for him.

I'd trade De Santis for Inslee every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I'd trade De Santis for Inslee every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Inslee’s roads are full of potholes and he can’t plow mountain passes or make ferries run on time. In short, he’s an idiot who sucks at the job of running a state.

DeSantis on the other hand excels at it. Actual job performance matters.

Inslee’s roads are full of potholes and he can’t plow mountain passes or make ferries run on time. In short, he’s an idiot who sucks at the job of running a state.

DeSantis on the other hand excels at it. Actual job performance matters.

DeSantis doesn't do any of that stuff - at least, not here in Florida. Nearly all of those governmental services are run by county and municipal governments.

And while Florida is a fairly well run state at the state level, very little of that has anything to do with De Santis (good or bad) - it's been a well-administered state since the late 1970's, as we had a string of very competent governors that put together a very solid state administration (Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, Bob Martinez, Lawton Chiles, and Jeb Bush). All of whom (Republican and Democratic) were very impressive administrators and very focused on having the state operate efficiently. Bush especially, who was an excellent administrative governor.

DeSantis isn't that guy. All credit for keeping the object in motion continuing in motion, but he's not been the type of governor who sees his mission as making sure the trains run on time "metaphorically." He's been far more focused on the legislature and adopting big policies, rather than the more prosaic governmental functions you laud above.

So no - even though you're quite confident that no one would be willing to trade for Inslee, put me down as absolutely 100% willing to make that swap.

So no - even though you're quite confident that no one would be willing to trade for Inslee, put me down as absolutely 100% willing to make that swap.

I would take that trade in a heartbeat. Jay Inslee is a walking disaster. There’s literally nothing about the state the man has improved.

Fortunately here in WA we have a Citizen’s Initiative process that allows for ballot measures if you can get enough signatures for them. Happily, 4 and perhaps six of them have qualified for the November ballot. Can’t wait for most of “accomplishments” to be voted down.

albaby1: That might be worth it - I was just pushing back on the idea that there's some value for her to stay in the race as an "emergency back-up candidate" to Trump. Again, unless he keels over very soon, that's just not going to happen for Haley.

Actually, there's one more reason for Haley to stay in for a while longer: 1A) The Supreme Court has scheduled oral arguments to begin next month on the Colorado Supreme Court’s previous ruling, which found that Trump is an insurrectionist and he is therefore ineligible to appear on a ballot. 1B) That, and the high court might also decline to take up an anticipated federal appeals court decision denying Trump’s claim that he is immune from prosecution for anything he did as president.

In short, it is still possible that Trump may be ineligible to appear on several state's ballots and at least one major trial may be concluded this summer.

Fingers crossed.

Post New

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.