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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: onepoorguy 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48449 
Subject: war update
Date: 03/10/2025 7:05 PM
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For those who actually want to know what's going on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhTjj_2Nldc

Sort of a mixed bag at present. Weather is turning to Ukraine's favor, US support is in Russia's favor, NATO support is in Ukraine's favor, Russia has advanced and is threatening the Kursk positions of the Ukrainians, and more. Russia still has the numbers, but those numbers are often older, sicker, and not as well trained. This is certainly NOT a lock for a Russian victory, and with allied support Ukraine could very well outlast them. Perun then gave a list of examples from colonial times up till now (i.e. of more powerful forces being forced to go home by vastly inferior forces...like "blokes hiding in mountains and caves").

Lot of moving parts, but it's still anybody's war. Either side could end up losing due to lots of external factors.
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 671 
Subject: Re: war update
Date: 03/10/2025 8:16 PM
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comments w/some interesting notes from multiple sources :

short-term, it's a race between trump's cowardly betrayal and the EU ramping up.

longer-term :
ukraine knows trump will not risk any military move against putin on some ephemeral mineral deal...and probably for no reason ever. there is certainly a long list of excuses already prepared.

given any break\ceasefire\border freeze, russia has a demographic issue with regards to continued expansion. they could temper this, and somewhat buy time, by going after a smaller non-NATO nation on the southern border.
the critical piece is easing energy sanctions, which will lead to a giveaway every intelligence source will know (and trump will ignore) ;
is russia maintaining\growing the wartime economy in the name of 'defense'?

are they escalating cybercrime , cyberwarfare, political misinformation, and strategic (not grudge) assassinations ?

if so, trump has invited america to be putin's home away from home, by ceasing cyberattacks on russia's state-sponsored criminals, and letting russia repopulate embassies for espionage w/diplomatic immunity.
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Author: onepoorguy 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 671 
Subject: Re: war update
Date: 03/11/2025 4:14 PM
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Apparently Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day cease-fire in exchange for continued US support. Which, apparently, we are going to do. However, Vlad the Impaler hasn't yet agreed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/world/europe/uk...

IMO, not an ideal situation. Giving the Russians a respite isn't great. But, Zelensky probably thought that was less bad than a severing of US support. I can see that argument.

“We’ll take this offer now to the Russians, and we hope that they’ll say yes, that they’ll say yes to peace,” Mr. Rubio said. “The ball is now in their court.”

The United States has been pursuing talks separately with Russia and with Ukraine. There has been no public indication that Russia would accept an unconditional, monthlong cease-fire. And President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has signaled that he will demand concessions — such as ruling out membership in NATO for Ukraine — before agreeing to any halt in the war, which began in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has killed or wounded more than one million soldiers on both sides.


I don't see Ukraine agreeing to that. They have no security guarantees if they can't join NATO.

Prediction: Vlad will demand the above, Ukraine will say "no", then no cease-fire, and the US uses that as a reason to withhold support. With the Felon in Vlad's pocket, as well as Vance, Vlad can have high confidence in demanding the above with assurance that the US will not support Ukraine.
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 671 
Subject: Re: war update
Date: 03/11/2025 6:30 PM
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odds are nothing gets agreed, but ukraine needs to buy time given russia's escalation as soon as trump dropped very inexpensive intelligence sharing.

IF a ceasefire exists :
- russia violates
- trump ignores -> blames ukraine -> weaves how putin was smart and justified

nothing more certain.
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