Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
No. of Recommendations: 2
OPEC chief dismisses IEA supply glut forecast as ‘critical’ Strait of Hormuz reopens
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that a lasting resolution to the conflict could drive a surge in supply volumes and trigger a major oil overhang next year.
Its report said supply is expected to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand rises by 2 million barrels per day in 2027.
But OPEC’s al-Ghais rejected the forecast in an exclusive interview with CNBC on Thursday.
He told CNBC’s Dan Murphy that “sometimes it’s best not to make such assumptions when they are not really based on facts and figures.”
“What does the IEA see that OPEC and the rest don’t see?” he said. ”[We focus] on fundamentals and not putting many ifs and buts in our forecasts, but rather focusing on actual numbers.”https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/opec-iea-supply-gl...Prior to the war, there was a surplus in the market of some 2-3Mbpd. The war fixed that, to the great profit of MBS, Putin, and USian big oil. Trump the Most Perfect is hinting at reimposing sanctions on Russian oil, but that is not nearly enough to compensate for Hormuz being open, and sanctions on Iran being removed. Where else can he disrupt supply?
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Washington would soon be in a position to reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments after crude flows resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following a deal with Iran to end the Middle East conflict.https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/inter...Steve
No. of Recommendations: 9
Trump the Most Perfect is hinting at reimposing sanctions on Russian oil, but that is not nearly enough to compensate for Hormuz being open, and sanctions on Iran being removed. Where else can he disrupt supply?
He won't. He doesn't want oil prices to be high. He wants them to be low. He wants gas prices to come down so that his party doesn't get wiped out in the midterms. He wants the inflationary pressures caused by high prices for oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other industrial inputs to go away so that he can finally get the rate cuts he's been longing for the last 18 months. And he's very motivated by his own personal book - he doesn't have any personal interests in oil and he already gave them the world with the changes to U.S. regulatory policy (removing the endangerment finding, disrupting fuel economy standards, killing all the EV credits, etc).
He has nothing to gain from high oil prices, and lots to lose. And while he wasn't smart enough to realize before the war that oil shortages elsewhere in the world can drive up prices for U.S. consumers even though we're a net exporter, he has learned that lesson by now.
If the Administration is going to further indulge their interventionist bent, I think the prediction of Cuba as the next target is probably right. Cuba is weak, close, has a domestic constituency that's important to Trump, and doesn't have the downside of driving up oil prices.
No. of Recommendations: 3
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Washington would soon be in a position to reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments after crude flows resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following a deal with Iran to end the Middle East conflict.Will Russia have any oil left to sanction?
Gifted:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/world/europe/uk...
No. of Recommendations: 1
He wants gas prices to come down so that his party doesn't get wiped out in the midterms. That is what the Israel firsters are proposing: the "peace" is nothing but an attempt to con the Proles into voting GOP one more time, then restart the war after the election. The fact that the MOU is virtually a surrender to Iran does make that a plausible scenario: make an offer so attractive that he can get a quick agreement, to make the price of gas a non-issue. Then repudiate the "deal" the day after the election. Just the thing a two-faced, back-stabbing, "JC" would do.
Watch to see if Iraq and the Emirates continue with their bypass pipeline construction.
June 9
Iraq and UAE race to establish alternative oil pipelines as exports through Hormuz dry uphttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/iraq-uae-hormuz-oi...Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
And while he wasn't smart enough to realize before the war that oil shortages elsewhere in the world can drive up prices for U.S. consumers even though we're a net exporter, he has learned that lesson by now.He said, openly, a couple times, he doesn't care what US Proles pay for gas. And he bragged, repeatedly, about all the tankers heading for the US, to bid against USians, for US produced oil. Based on his record, the scenario of the MOU being nothing but a tactic to prevent a GOP beat down, in November, before being repudiated, is not impossible.
Trump continues to bluster like he is smarter than everyone.
Trump claims Iran deal is ‘unconditional surrender,’ says his power has ‘no limits’: Axios
U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that he has unlimited power and insisted the deal reached with Iran amounts to “unconditional surrender” by Tehran, in an interview with Axios.
Asked what he had learned from the war about the limits to his power, Trump said that “I haven’t learned that lesson yet. I know there are, but there are no limits.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/trump-claims-iran-...It is not impossible that Trump told "Bibi" the MOU, and the cease fire in Lebanon, are shams, just like the other 40 times he declared "peace is at hand", to get past the election, before resuming the blockade.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 5
That is what the Israel firsters are proposing: the "peace" is nothing but an attempt to con the Proles into voting GOP one more time, then restart the war after the election. The fact that the MOU is virtually a surrender to Iran does make that a plausible scenario: make an offer so attractive that he can get a quick agreement, to make the price of gas a non-issue. Then repudiate the "deal" the day after the election.
That's really unlikely scenario. While certainly high prices of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium and other industrial inputs are more of a problem for Trump heading into the midterm elections, they don't become not a problem once the midterms are over.
High prices on all those things are bad for the Administration. They cause the President to be unpopular, they damage a whole lot of other industries that use them for industrial inputs so they cause broader damage to the U.S. economy, etc. Interest rates stay high, the global economy goes into recession, it becomes a massive issue in the GOP Presidential primaries (which effectively will start in the late spring of 2027). The President would have massive downside to restarting the war after the election. Especially since four months is not nearly enough time for the world to recover reserves and inventories.
And it gets even more unlikely, bordering on fantasy, when you start asking the real questions about what repudiating the deal (and therefore restarting the blockade and possibly the bombing): with what resources, and to what end? Congress is already pissed and unhappy about the war, and it's already cost about $120 billion. Trump doesn't have the money in hand to prosecute another open conflict, and Congress is In No Mood to give him any more. And that's if the GOP were to pull off a miracle and hold the House!
Meanwhile, if Trump did restart the war, he'd be putting his huevos right back into the same vise he extracted them from now at great cost. There's nothing he can get by repudiating the deal after election day, because the U.S. still doesn't have the resources to withstand more than a few months of the Strait being closed.
This is pretty much just the fantasy of Iran hawks and Israel supporters so that they can imagine that Trump is playing 17D chess - that the MOU isn't the agreement, that the war is just put on pause and Trump the savior will actually vanquish the Iranian threat. But that's just lunacy. Trump has capitulated, because he didn't have any choice but to capitulate. He can't undo the capitulation, because if he does he will back in the same spot and have to capitulate again a few months later. The unpopularity of the Iran war and high gas prices have cratered all the stuff he wants to do - ballroom funding, the SAVE act, the $1,776 billion slush fund, getting interest rates down. He's not the brightest bulb in the candelabra, but he's going to stick his wangdoodle back into the same hydraulic press that just flattened it again.
No. of Recommendations: 8
He said, openly, a couple times, he doesn't care what US Proles pay for gas.
Yeah. He lied.
I mean, he probably doesn't personally care. But high gas prices cause him all kinds of political problems and interfere with his agenda and jeopardize the already thin chances of the GOP holding the House and keep him from getting the interest rate cuts he wants and....
Well, I could go on and on. He doesn't care what the Proles think or feel, but he cares about how high gas prices affect him. And boy, did they ever.
It is not impossible that Trump told "Bibi" the MOU, and the cease fire in Lebanon, are shams, just like the other 40 times he declared "peace is at hand", to get past the election, before resuming the blockade.
It's pretty darn close to impossible, because if he had given "Bibi" that assurance then Bibi's allies and supporters wouldn't be so enraged about the MOU. But they know that's not going to happen. Trump gains virtually nothing by resuming the blockade and may not even have the ability to continue the blockade (especially if the Democrats take the House, and certainly if the Democrats take the Senate).
Trump has capitulated, to the chagrin of Iran hawks and the Israeli right. And there's no imagining it or wishcasting it away.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Trump has capitulated, to the chagrin of Iran hawks and the Israeli right. And there's no imagining it or wishcasting it away. How did Trump get elected? By telling people what they wanted to hear. What did he do after the election? Stab them in the back.
It's time for him to give the GOP caucus the typical "JC" lecture: "I know things you don't know", "I understand things you don't understand", without explaining what those "things" are.
Senate Republicans in somber, pessimistic mood over Trump deal with Iran
Trump's most vocal MAGA allies on Capitol Hill are defending the agreement as a potential breakthrough that could finally end Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
But many more GOP senators are skeptical about reaching any real agreement with Iran, arguing that the United States doesn't seem to have any real leverage in the talks.
"I think there is a high level of dismay in that room," said a Republican senator, who requested anonymity to discuss what GOP colleagues were thinking about Trump's Iran deal as they gathered for a lunch meeting in the Capitol on Thursday.
A second Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss the deflated mood among GOP colleagues described the Senate Republican reaction to the deal as "somber."
"It was a somber mood, people are a little shell-shocked. All the money in this deal for Iran is going to be a real problem," the senator said.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) on Thursday blasted the deal "as completely out of step with the president's goals" of neutralizing the threat Iran poses to U.S. national security interests.https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/senat...Notice how out of step the Pols are, with "We The People". They want war.
What do "We The People" want? from the net sifter:
A majority of Americans (52% to 60%) oppose U.S. military action in Iran, with 66% to 68% preferring to end the war as quickly as possible, even at the cost of failing to achieve all goals. This marks an historically unpopular conflict, with public disapproval largely driven by rising gas prices, economic stress, and fears of escalation.
Approval Ratings: Only about 25% to 33% of the public believes the U.S. decision to take military action in Iran has been worth it, while the majority disapproves of how the conflict is being handled
Republicans: Roughly half to two-thirds of Republicans generally support the military action and the president's handling of the conflict
Democrats: Over 70% to 89% of Democrats oppose the war and the president's handling of it, frequently stating in hindsight that the war was a wrong decision
Independents: Independents heavily lean against the conflict, often siding with Democrats in opposing U.S. military involvementWithout independents, the GOP, in much of the country, would be frelled this November, if the war was still going.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 8
Trump is playing 17D chess
The D’s stand for Dizzy, Dumb, Dimwit, Dipshit, Dopey, Doltish, Dense, Dummy, Dotty, Dunce, Daffy, Dippy, Dumbbell, Demented, Drowsy, Dreary, and Demented.
I could keep going but I don’t think there are enough words in the English language to adequately describe him.
No. of Recommendations: 7
How did Trump get elected? By telling people what they wanted to hear. What did he do after the election? Stab them in the back.
True. I just think you're mistaken about who the people getting stabbed in the back in this scenario are.
Trump has been telling MAGA, the Iran war hawks, the other Gulf State leaders, and Israel supporters (and Israeli officials themselves) that he was going to solve the security threats posed by Iran. That's because he thought it would be easy. Obama was weak and stupid and didn't realize how strong our military was, so the U.S. can just force Iran to give us everything that we (and Israel and the Gulf States) want.
But as soon as that started causing problems for Trump, he's stabbing them in the back. I mean, he wants to be the guy who finally fixed Iran - but not if it means he's going to get blamed for touching off another Great Recession. So when the choice is between his interests and the interests of all those other groups....well, you know. He's a JC after all.
Trump doesn't want Iran to push the global economy into a worldwide recession. Before the war, he failed to anticipate that they had the power to do that - everyone else knew that, of course, but he's a bit of a slow study. But now he knows it. So "Bibi" and Mark Dubowitz and Lindsey Graham and everyone else who wants Trump to finish what he started can now take their seats under the bus (along with the American people who are out hundreds of billions of dollars because of this debacle).
It's a bitter pill for Iran hawks and folks who believed the stories of how the Israeli government secretly had a huge amount of control over Trump. But no one's immune from getting stabbed in the back by Trump once it's in his interest to do so.
No. of Recommendations: 4
The D’s stand for Dizzy, Dumb, Dimwit, Dipshit, Dopey, Doltish, Dense, Dummy, Dotty, Dunce, Daffy, Dippy, Dumbbell, Demented, Drowsy, Dreary, and Demented.
Nice. Those could also well be the 17 mental dwarves of this administration: "Slow Orange and the 17 Dwarves".
No. of Recommendations: 2
Trump has capitulated, to the chagrin of Iran hawks and the Israeli right. And there's no imagining it or wishcasting it away. Remember your Shakespeare. "Methinks the lady doth protest too much". Trump didn't promise a quarter of what Iran wanted. He didn't promise them half. He gave them everything they wanted, including every dollar of the reparations that Iran wanted. Typical "JC" move: promise anything, to get what you want now.
Now, Trump is throwing shade on his own deal.
Trump Says Iran Is ‘FINISHED’ After Cancelled Negotiations — As Israeli Attacks Threaten Deal
Trump said "we'll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!" referring to the 60-day period after the agreement was signed overnight Wednesday to negotiate outstanding issues, including the future of Iran's nuclear program.
The deal included a commitment from the U.S. to lift sanctions on Iran and unfreeze Iranian assets in foreign accounts in the final agreement, to be made within 60 days.https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/politics/arti...He said it out loud. Stalling tactic. Watch the kabuki dance be extended past election day.
I am holding my CVX and XOM, as they are in my cash account. Sold the COP in my IRA, because no tax implications. I anticipate the COP will be lower in the escalating "peace is at hand" kabuki dance in October.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
...folks who believed the stories of how the Israeli government secretly had a huge amount of control over Trump...
I never thought there were many people who thought Bibi had a "huge amount of control." I think a lot of people thought Bibi had an outsized influence on trump at the time. That may well be true, but because trump bought into the idea of Venezuela 2.0 and was susceptible to that influence. As stated, trump's not the sharpest marble in the bag, but he can read the room oftentimes.
Pete
No. of Recommendations: 10
Typical "JC" move: promise anything, to get what you want now.
Now, Trump is throwing shade on his own deal.
Trump may not understand his own deal. The capitulation has already happened. The active fighting has stopped, the blockade has been lifted, and Iran is able to sell oil again (they've already moved several tankers worth through the Strait). There's no dispute that's happening....which means Iran has already won this phase of the war. The U.S. tried to make them agree to terms on their nuclear program by force of arms, and Iran was able to say "no." Seizing the Strait worked as a tactic, and we were forced to stop attacking them/blockading them in order to get it open again.
Done and dusted.
We have agreed, in writing, to unfreeze assets and waive sanctions. That *might* be inconsistent with Trump's comments - he might not know or remember that we agreed to do this immediately, before the Final Deal. But given that Iran's already out there selling oil and that we want them to sell oil to get the price down, I suspect that the Administration will take the position that unfreezing and removing sanctions isn't "giving them money," and they're already making arguments that Trump can waive the sanctions without Congressional approval.
He said it out loud. Stalling tactic. Watch the kabuki dance be extended past election day.
Some of the kabuki dance will continue, sure. My money would be that there's never going to be a "Final Deal," but the parties will continue to pretend there will be for the rest of Trump's term.
But the more important negotiations are already over. The negotiations to open the Strait again and get oil prices down. Those were never a kabuki dance. They were serious as a heart attack, because Trump desperately need the Strait open again. And that's why those negotiations actually reached an agreement, and an agreement that is being implemented. The Strait is open, Iran's selling oil again, the U.S. has ceased the blockade and has aborted the military action against Iran. No kabuki there; that was all real, and Iran forced Trump to capitulate.
No. of Recommendations: 5
The active fighting has stopped, the blockade has been lifted, and Iran is able to sell oil againOpening the Strait was the objective, so the US Proles can have cheap gas, until the day after the election, when the Proles are, again, expendable. Clearly, Trump's political advisors told him that, regardless what the Israeli tools in Congress and the media may want, the GOP would be slaughtered in November, if people are paying a price higher than they are used to, for gas. This is actually encouraging: that we will have "free and fair" elections this fall. What Trump does is always, first and foremost, what benefits himself.
They were serious as a heart attack, because Trump desperately need the Strait open again. Trump the God is strutting around, trying to gaslight everyone that it was Iran that was "desperate to get something on paper", and "surrendered", to advance his narrative about what a big wiener he is. But his objective was to temporarily knock down the price of gas, period, so *he* was "desperate to get something on paper" to justify opening the Strait, with Iran's cooperation.
No kabuki there; that was all real, and Iran forced Trump to capitulate. We shall see, in the fullness of time.
Keep in mind, Trump will lie about anything, anywhere, any time, to polish his image, even when his lies are easily exposed, and he looks like a bellowing fool, to everyone but his a$$ kissers.
Italy cancels US visit after "offensive" Trump remarks
Italy’s foreign minister has canceled a planned visit to the United States over comments President Donald Trump made about Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni earlier this week.
Trump told Italy’s La7 broadcaster that Meloni—ideologically one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe—had him “begged” for a photograph with him during the closely-watched G7 summit of world leaders between Monday and Wednesday.
“She wanted a picture with me so badly,” Trump said. “I wouldn’t have taken it, but I felt sorry for her.”
-------
Meloni swiftly responded to Trump’s claims on social media, saying she was “stunned” and that his account was made up.
“Neither I nor Italy ever beg,” she said.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/italy-cancels...The guy is a dic!-head of epic proportions.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 7
Opening the Strait was the objective, so the US Proles can have cheap gas, until the day after the election, when the Proles are, again, expendable
The first part of that sentence is true, and the second is not.
This doesn't go away the day after the election. It is never a good time for the Strait to be closed. It will never be a good time for Trump to have to deal with rising gas prices, rising food prices (as fertilizer costs spike), disruption to U.S. access to chips (as Taiwan suffers from helium shortages), and a world wide Great Recession. Trump gains nothing from the Strait being closed except problems.
And honestly, it actually gets even worse for Trump in 2027 that it was now. Sure, the midterms are important - but a MAGA Trump ally succeeding him to the Presidency is existential. Trump cannot afford to have a Democrat elected in 2028. He can't have his immediate successor tearing up all his executive orders, tearing down all his monuments, and (worst of all) having the DOJ look into everything he's been up to for the last four years. He needs a four year break for everything to age, witnesses to forget (or get cushy outside jobs), and for the heat to die down.
The GOP Presidential primaries basically kick off in the late spring - about five or six months after the midterm elections. He doesn't want his chosen successor (whoever it is) launching their campaign among questions about why the Iran war is still going on after a full year, why gas prices are still over $4.00, why interest rates are still high, why inflation is higher than ever, etc.
Steve, I think you've gotten a little too married to your investment thesis, here. Trump doesn't secretly want high oil prices. He's not going to keep the Strait closed so that oil prices will go up. He wants the Strait open. This isn't a temporary aberration, it's not a ruse. He gains nothing from a closed Strait - and since he doesn't gain from it, he's not going to close it again.
Keep in mind, Trump will lie about anything, anywhere, any time, to polish his image, even when his lies are easily exposed, and he looks like a bellowing fool, to everyone but his a$$ kissers.
Of course. Remember, though, that means that will lie to oil executives. He'll lie to Iran hawks. He'll lie to Israel supporters, to members of the Israeli government, to "Bibi" himself. There's no one he won't lie to. And he lied when he suggested that he was going to be firm and resilient in bringing down Iran and eliminating their threat to the region. He lies when he says he doesn't care about high gas prices, that he won't succumb to political pressure when it comes to fighting Iran, that he's got it all in hand.
He doesn't have a secret plan to restart the war so he can win it after November. This was it. The bump in oil prices from Iran shoving Trump's ignorance of war planning in his face is over. There will be hiccups and bumps going forward, of course - especially if Israel starts bombing Lebanon or Iran. But we're not restarting the war, and we're not shutting down the Strait again - even after the midterms.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Now the old dotard is having serious delusion of grandeur.
Trump claims Iran deal is ‘unconditional surrender,’ says his power has ‘no limits’: Axios
U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that he has unlimited power
No. of Recommendations: 0
It will never be a good time for Trump to have to deal with rising gas prices, rising food prices (as fertilizer costs spike), disruption to U.S. access to chips (as Taiwan suffers from helium shortages), and a world wide Great Recession. Trump gains nothing from the Strait being closed except problems.He has no problem imposing high tariffs, so Proles need to pay more for a wide range of products. Why should he exempt fuel from the Prole money extraction project?
but a MAGA Trump ally succeeding him to the Presidency is existential. Trump cannot afford to have a Democrat elected in 2028.I have suggested before, that Trump will be "President For Life". Does anyone here really think he will willingly ever leave office?
He doesn't have a secret plan to restart the war so he can win it after November. Joe Kent was on TYT last night. He is cheering "Trump is back!"..."America first is back!"...exactly what Trump wants the Proles who voted him into office two years ago to think. Then, the day after they vote, he rogers them again. "Winning" a war with Iran is not the objective. Closing the Strait, and keeping Iran's head down, is sufficient.
Joe Kent: PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BACKhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9Txp4FTlRwSteve
No. of Recommendations: 1
He has no problem imposing high tariffs, so Proles need to pay more for a wide range of products. Why should he exempt fuel from the Prole money extraction project?
Difference of degree. If the Strait stays closed until worldwide oil and gas inventories collapse, and you start disrupting global microchip production, you end up causing a massive energy crisis. You end up precipitating a second Great Recession. It's absolutely contrary to Trump's interest to have that happen. Which is why he folded.
Joe Kent can spin it all he wants, and maybe the Administration will be successful in persuading some portion of the population to believe that this wasn't a terrible outcome. But none of that would then make it in Trump's interest to close the Strait again, or to drive up oil prices again. This isn't a feint until the election is over.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Very interesting exchange. The one piece needing more consideration, I think, is that Donald is incapable of considering the consequences of his actions, starting with the whole conflict with Iran.
