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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: bankersfate   😊 😞
Number: of 759 
Subject: CMG $43.12
Date: 07/31/2025 3:16 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Chipotle Mexican Grill is down 28% for the year. Down 20.4% for the last 12 months. Up 10% over last 2 years.
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Author: richinmd 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 759 
Subject: Re: CMG $43.12
Date: 08/01/2025 5:05 PM
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I'm not a Chipotle customer but many places like that have priced themselves too high for a lot of customers. I saw somewhere they have raised prices 7 times since 2021 and many others said the quantity is getting smaller.

I'd be wary of a lot of restaurant stocks. I don't think they are public but Five Guys is another place I avoid since their prices are just out of touch with reality.

Rich
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Author: richinmd 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 759 
Subject: Re: CMG $43.12
Date: 08/02/2025 4:49 PM
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I was reading on reddit about Chipotle. I thought the following message was interesting and might shed some light, assuming it is true.


Coming from a store that is both:

A: very profitable (about 33% bottom line, $6.5k ads) B: gives good portions

I can tell you that the issue is not portions. It’s corporate squeezing the training budget to the point where it’s impacting all other facets of the business. How do you grow sales at Chipotle?

Speed/quality of service

Food, both quality and portioning

Both of these require labor. The biggest factor being training. People want to be confident in what they do, they want to work in a place with high morale. Without sufficient training and labor budgets, it’s hard to keep quality employees. If you’re constantly churning new hires, of course the service is gonna suck, of course the food is gonna suck. This leads to an unhappy management staff and churn. This continues to snowball and results in new, untrained managers who have no idea how to train an ever turning door of new hires.

On a side note, my boss recently (accidentally?) shared an email showing old labor metrics when we were scheduling on menulink from 2019. A store doing $6.7k ADS earned 95 hours of labor. Now the same sales volume earned roughly 72-75 hours of labor… greed.

TLDR: a short term hit in labor (6-12 months) could result in a long term positive impact on sales through better trained and moraled teams.
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