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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 7
Watching the American electorate return George W Bush to office in 2004 (despite it being clear his Administration outright fabricated the rationale for war in Iraq to the US and world) and put Trump in office in 2016 reinforced my reluctance to ever attempt predictions about politics and economics.
However, seeing reaction to the announcement from Ron DeSantis that he is exiting the race after coming in second in a single caucus points out a few additional stars that seem to be aligning in the Republican universe. But are they a "sign" or an "omen?"
* any remaining race is down to Trump versus Haley
* any Never-Trumpers left in the Republican party only have one candidate to coalesce around -- Haley
* Rep. Elise Stefanik from NY is tripping over herself to be VP on a Trump ticket
* DeSantis has confirmed to past, present and future financial backers he has ZERO electoral charisma
It is still ABSOLUTLY possible that trial courts, appellate courts, the US Supreme Court and Georgia State courts could delay or foul up the numerous federal and state criminal trials involving Trump. At least for the federal charges, it is still absolutely plausible that Trump could win the 2024 election and be sworn into office before the federal cases reach a point where he could be convicted and exhaust appeals. (And he WILL appeal any conviction, requring MONTHS of additional legal wrangling.)
But these stars also point out another possible result:
* Trump runs away with the Republican nomination and becomes the nominee
* Elise Stefanik gets sucked into the VP slot by ambition and surrenders her House seat
* The American public suddenly reaches a tipping point from Trump's incoherent ramblings and open contempt for courts and democracy and he loses in the general election
* Elise Stefanik is removed from national politics
* Ron DeSantis is seen for the empty suit he is by Florida voters and gets voted out in 2026
These are all possible outcomes. Would they be enough for any supposed traditional Republicans to exorcise the remaining MAGA insantity from their party? Probably not.
The only state of affairs that matters at this point is that recent activity in the courts makes it clear that counting on results from courts to put a stake through MAGA insanity is not a viable option. The ONLY path to its elimination involves Republicans at large losing the 2024 election, not only at the top of the ticket but more broadly across the House, Senate and state races.
WTH
No. of Recommendations: 2
* The American public suddenly reaches a tipping point from Trump's incoherent ramblings and open contempt for courts and democracy and he loses in the general election
The majority of Americans already seem to be there. Trump has twice lost the popular vote. But it appears the MAGA crowd is beyond hope. And that (insane) solidarity along with the effing electoral college could easily be enough to see this petty little tyrant reelected.
No. of Recommendations: 2
along with the effing electoral college - ges
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Yeah, just who are these yahoos interfering with the will of the people. The EC should be abandoned then the will of the people in three or maybe four Blue states can just pick our President. Much more efficient and better government of course.
The rest of the people should just shut up and get back to producing and transporting all the energy, food and finished goods that our massive cities depend on.
No. of Recommendations: 10
The majority of Americans already seem to be there. Trump has twice lost the popular vote.
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True. What I was alluding to is the sliver of remaining "Republicans" who intellectually know Trump is horrendously flawed but still emotionally think they cannot support a non-Republican alternative (it really doesn't matter if it was Biden, Obama or Superman). How big is that sliver? I don't know exactly. A total of 155.4 million votes were cast in 2020. The margin between Biden and Trump was 7 million. If you beleive current polls, Biden is BEHIND either Trump or Haley. But a national poll doesn't mean anything because we don't vote in one big pool of 155.4 million votes. We have 50 individual elections courtesy of the Electoral College mechanism. I suspect when would-be Democratic voters get closer to election day, they will stop reflecting their utopian dream of an ideal candidate who isn't in the race and stop registering "protest votes" by stating some other preference in a meaningless poll. Biden's numbers will come up.
That means Biden still must win at least two or three of the big swing states. That means there might be about 3-4 million "Republicans" still currently stating support for Trump who need to come to grips with the Constitutional reality of what a vote for Trump could enable who need to either stay home or hold their nose and vote for a Democrat.
If there are that many "Republicans" in that state of disillusionment who might walk away from Trump and polls begin picking up on that after the Republican primary becomes an affait accompli and Trump becomes cemented onto the ballot, that could further depress the entire Republican party performance at the federal and state level.
As you said, the MAJORITY of Americans have twice clearly reflected their understanding that Trump is the wrong choice for America. The key question involves the preferences of voters who accidentally sit in a position of unexpected / undemocratic influence due to the vagaries of the Electoral College. If THAT sliver of voters wakes up and flees the Trump horror show, things could turn VERY dark for Republicans.
As things stand, things could turn very dark for the entire COUNTRY if fussy Democrats become apathetic for lack of the perfect candidate and stay home.
WTH
No. of Recommendations: 3
Just my opinion, subject to change as new events unfold.
I genuinely hope that Haley wins the nomination. That would mean that the QOP isn't a completely lost cause. We need a credible, serious opposition party at all times. If they select Trump, they are not credible or serious (except in the way a heart attack is serious).
The flip side of that is that I think Haley has the better chance to defeat Biden, which I would not like (I think that her policies are too close to maga policies). Trump could defeat him, but Haley will have an easier time. As before, voters will show up in droves to vote against Trump. I'm not sure Haley would generate the same opposition response.
No. of Recommendations: 1
We need a credible, serious opposition party at all times. If they select Trump, they are not credible or serious - 1pg
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Heh. If you think about it, when Trump is elected, then it is you guys who become the opposition party.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Absolutely. As I said, we need one at all times, no matter which is in power. The Dems are credible and serious, even if you don't agree with them. Trump is neither, as I said before.
Senate Reps are apparently attempting to do what serious politicians do. The non-serious Trumpies appear to be blocking them.
I am so glad I left the Party 20 years ago. I'd be embarrassed to be associated with them today.
No. of Recommendations: 1
If you got all you wanted......
You are still a trivialized country with dysfunctional culture that you helped create.
I love it.
6 in one..... :)
No. of Recommendations: 8
Heh. If you think about it, when Trump is elected, then it is you guys who become the opposition party.
Heh. If you think about it, when Trump is elected, then you guys become the pro-rape party.
