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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21938 
Subject: Re: o/t, debtors and creditors,
Date: 07/02/24 1:56 PM
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Did you factor in the rapid decline of the Chinese population that is baked in? Just math at this point with such low birth rates for a very one time.

I doubt it's that relevant, provided that income per capita continues rising faster than in the west for a while yet. Which seems pretty likely, given the low base. For a place with slowly growing typical real income per capita like the US, the demographic effect is a more important part of the calculation of the total GDP trajectory.

I doubt there are any forecasts of the US economy once again becoming larger than the Chinese one at constant prices this century. There are quite a few people in China, and (to overgeneralize) they do not have a reputation of not wanting to get ahead. Of course the future is uncertain. Chinese real GDP per capita was about a third lower in 1850 than it was in 950. And revolutions do tend to set things back, for example, and they're possible anywhere.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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