No. of Recommendations: 1
Replying to your 2024 post where I think you were a bit too optimistic about how well Ozempic prices might hold up, as generic competition emerges:
My impression goes something like this: every time a new drug class comes along, there is an initial molecule or two, then a bunch more, at which point Darwin steps in and ultimately leaves maybe three. Elapsed time from growing clinical enthusiasm (not development pipeline) to maturity - maybe fifteen years +/-.
Here's an example of a fantastic new drug, imatinib (Gleevec or Glivec, depending on the country), which basically cures one of the 4 common leukemias, and how its price has evolved over the last 10 years (summary provided by Gemini)
Here is the 10-year pricing trajectory and market shift:
Pre-Patent Expiry (Prior to 2016): Branded imatinib list prices soared over the years. In the mid-2010s, a standard 400 mg daily dose cost roughly $120,000 to $146,000 per year.
Generic Entry (2016–2018): After the initial patent expiration in February 2016, a legally negotiated 6-month duopoly with the first generic kept prices relatively high (near $113,000 to $140,000 per year). However, as more generic competitors entered the U.S. market, prices dropped significantly, bringing average wholesale acquisition costs to roughly $9,000 to $10,000 per year by late 2018.
Current Generic Pricing: Today, a standard 400 mg dose has an average cash price or acquisition cost ranging from $4,400 to $10,000 annually.
Alternative Discount Models: Disruptor services like the Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company offer massive reductions, supplying a month of 400 mg tablets for as little as $47, which bypasses traditional insurance markups entirely.
Also, I erroneously said that Novo's semaglutide had patent protection for another 18 months, which was true in Canada but not in the USA, where the drug is protected until the end of 2031, much longer than I thought. It would have been more precise to say that its patent protection would be expiring over the next few years, with different dates from country to country. I still think semaglutide will struggle to compete with Lilly's tirzepatide and, eventually, retatrutide, with tirzepatide now taking over from semaglutide as the drug with the highest sales in the field. But semaglutide may retain fairly good sales at a lower price, say half of the others, and might even make up for the lower price with higher volume, as the good news about GLP-1 agonists keeps coming in and insurance coverage improves.
dtb
