No. of Recommendations: 5
... not so cheap if the cycle is about to take a noise dive...
I realize this is probably just a meaningless typo for "nose dive", but I like it.
When the price of a valuable asset falls, it's not a brick falling to the ground, it's just statistical noise!
I have no idea about the value of most house building firms, so I have no positions.
It does seem like one of those businesses that, if they don't blow up (a big if in some cases), they will probably make money over the long run even with occasional unprofitable stretches, so they make a good long term hold for someone who's happy to live through those dry spells. A willingness that Berkshire certainly has. At that point it's just a case of making sure that the entry price is low enough relative to the aggregate future earnings.
Jim