My guess is they are both talking their book.

This is a popular sentiment, and one that is widely used to dismiss their reports each time they come out.

But I don't get the reasoning--I never have. It doesn't do them any good to publish a rosy forecast, since that's the forecast they run their business to. If anything, a consciously high forecast would cause them to waste a lot of money on unneeded capex and chasing projects well beyond the marginal benefit level.

The forecast might be right or wrong, and one might agree or disagree, but the mere fact that they SAY that they think oil demand will be at level X in Y years from now won't MAKE oil demand be that high at that time. It will be what it will be. If anything a well-reasoned high forecast is a boon for the green movement, as it's a wake-up call that other net-zero forecasts might be way too cheery from groupthink, and more actual changes (rather than announcements) might be needed.

All their lobbying and PR guff is an entirely separate discussion, and might actually affect demand, but that would take place regardless of what's in their energy forecasts. I just don't think their energy forecast falls into that category.

Jim