Be as clear and concise as possible in your posts, and avoid using jargon or unnecessarily complex language. Use proper spelling and grammar, and make sure that your posts are easy to understand.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 0
The Democrats may see a shutdown as a way to slow down the fascist blitzkrieg of the Constitution or a way to force Republicans to do something to take a stand that is either in opposition to Fearless Leader or will give them another weapon in their growing 2026 election arsenal.
No. of Recommendations: 7
The Democrats may see a shutdown as a way to slow down the fascist blitzkrieg of the Constitution or a way to force Republicans to do something to take a stand that is either in opposition to Fearless Leader or will give them another weapon in their growing 2026 election arsenal.
Oh, it's certainly just the last one.
They can't realistically think that the bill that gets passed after the government shutdown will differ materially from the one that could be adopted today to avoid the shutdown. They just want to have the fight, for a very brief while. The Democratic base demands it, and they believe that creating an emergency-level degree of attention to their complaints will help them convince voters that these are serious problems.
But the public hates shutdowns, and shutdowns are more inconsistent with Democratic party goals than Republican party goals. So I would expect that any shutdown would be very, very brief. It will probably happen. The Democrats need to have a fight, and this is one of the few fights they can have. But it's not a fight they can win. And they know it.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Every time I hear a discussion like this, I attempt to teleport into the head of someone who listens/watches what passees for news inside of a completely different silo than I sit in (and treats, what I consider as news as fake). It is amazing the insight one gets into how differently others will react to actions which I think would make sense.
One challenge we currently have is caused by the significant changes in the attitudes of those leading both of the major political parties, yet deealing with people who insist that "their" party line is the only valid one (without realizing that their party may only exist in name only).
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 2
One challenge we currently have is caused by the significant changes in the attitudes of those leading both of the major political parties, yet deealing with people who insist that "their" party line is the only valid one (without realizing that their party may only exist in name only).
I know...no politics on METAR. Wendy will be irritated otherwise. But I just have to ask, based on the above - do you think I'm a Republican? Or that the Democrats are a party that exists in name only.
Albaby (lifelong Democrat)
No. of Recommendations: 1
I think it has nothing to do with the Democrats.
The GOP can't get its house in order.
The extremes are fading away. The middle will decide this.
No. of Recommendations: 0
One challenge we currently have is caused by the significant changes in the attitudes of those leading both of the major political parties, yet deealing with people who insist that "their" party line is the only valid one (without realizing that their party may only exist in name only).
Jeff,
Two things: to the victor go the spoils, and the congressional voting is based on consensus.
More and more people are sick of the extremes. Good on Americans.
No. of Recommendations: 7
The Democrats need to have a fight, and this is one of the few fights they can have. But it's not a fight they can win. And they know it.
I hate to say it, but this is a fight they will lose. The markers for the economy are already heading down. Whether it’s retail sales, job creation, cardboard box manufacturing, lumber prices, almost anywhere you look, the economy is slowing.
If/when the government is shut down, the Republicans will, as a bloc, vote to keep it running (of course, because: Trump). They will need a handful of votes from Democrats to accomplish that, and last time Schumer gave them cover with a variety of (thin) reasons. This time he probably won’t.
But the deterioration in the economy is real, and Republicans will pin it on the shutdown, which will (of course) be the Democrats’ fault, especially in the hyper partisan silos of Fox, Rogan, et. al.
I’m not sure what shutting down the government does to stop Trump, but it feels like Democrats need the release, the way you have to scream after hitting your thumb with a hammer, and so they will do it.
It won’t solve anything, and it will be blamed on the Dems, making them even weaker going into the mid-terms. There is no good answer.
No. of Recommendations: 0
All I know, I am not in the prediction business on this one.
No. of Recommendations: 4
If/when the government is shut down, the Republicans will, as a bloc, vote to keep it running (of course, because: Trump). They will need a handful of votes from Democrats to accomplish that, and last time Schumer gave them cover with a variety of (thin) reasons. This time he probably won’t.
He will. The question is whether he'll do it before the government shuts down, or after the government has shut down for a few days.
The Democrats are very likely to go for the latter. They believe that Trump's approach to governance is terrible, and his approach to financial matters is unlawful (the pocket rescissions). They want to create an emergency-level event that will garner actual press attention so they can convey that message - both to satisfy their base that they're fighting, and to (presumably) educate voters about what the Administration is doing.
And then they'll stop the shutdown. Probably with a bill that is virtually identical to the one they could pass the day before the shutdown.
I agree with you that they will get some blame for the shutdown. I think they've just reached the conclusion that it's worth it, politically. Politics involves conflict - it is the mechanism by which we make choices when those choices are contested - and the Democrats feel that they need to forcefully inform voters of what the conflict is about and that they have a position that differs from the Administration.
But from a Macro perspective, I don't think we should expect the shutdown to last for a very long time. The Democrats accomplish nearly all their achievable goals by shutting down the government for a week (or less), and after that it should be relatively easy for Schumer to deliver Senate approval.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Calculus:
If a shutdown takes place:
How many Demoocrats are discouraged to vote Democaratic
How many Independents are discouraged to vote Democratic
How many Independents are encouraged to vote Republican
Seere if it makes sense - else it's stupid show of false machismo
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 0
But from a Macro perspective, I don't think we should expect the shutdown to last for a very long time.
Al,
Really? You ever notice the terms keep changing? He needs to embarrass the other guy. He needs the power.
Need the power? Just depend on the GOP. He does have the votes, right?
No. of Recommendations: 4
Really? You ever notice the terms keep changing? He needs to embarrass the other guy. He needs the power.
Need the power? Just depend on the GOP. He does have the votes, right?
Probably. The usual budget hardliners are threatening that this time they're actually going to insist on some fiscal restraint in order to go along with government funding, but nobody really believes them. Heck, restoring the funding to the health care subsidies are possibly on the table - not Freedom Caucus wishlists. So yes, I think that Johnson will be able to corral his folks to get a bill out of the House.
So it's really up to the Senate. Thune doesn't want a shutdown, and Schumer only wants a brief shutdown - so a brief shutdown is the most likely outcome.
It's possible that the Administration looks at the economic numbers and decides they want a lengthy shutdown to deflect blame for what lies ahead...but they also really don't want to lose the midterms, and it's very easy for Democrats to visibly yield and vote for (even sponsor!) a short term funding proposal that the GOP will get blamed for not passing.
So, again, macro...it's hard to see a long shutdown being a likely outcome.
No. of Recommendations: 0
but nobody really believes them
That is some sort of twist in society. I know you are not alone.
But
Dogmatic? That means it is their way or the highway. They want a pound of flesh after the last time.
The extremes are losing this war against the middle. The extremes are becoming far less popular right now.
Dogmatic means digging in.
If he can keep completely silent with zero insults and no changing of the terms......then the Democrats will be blamed. But we all know the score. We have been to this BBQ place before.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Dogmatic? That means it is their way or the highway. They want a pound of flesh after the last time.
It's not a matter of what they want. If the President calls them and tells them to vote for the bill, or he'll savage them on social media, then they'll vote for the bill. They had their chance to resist that pressure a few months back, and they all blinked. There's virtually no chance they'll grow more of a spine now. They'd love a pound of flesh, but the person they'd need to take it out of - Trump - is still way too powerful within their party for them get it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The extremes are losing this war against the middle. The extremes are becoming far less popular right now.
___________________________________________________________________________
But there is NO middle party. What is happening today in France is the result of a middle which will not be tolerated by either extreme. The "independent middle" in the US is more likely to hold their nose before voting for either party. The challenge for the two major parties is to either find the sweet spot of something which is worth adopting the rest of the crap to vote for (currently, it could include immigration, latrent bigotry, law and order, for example) or else point out something so vile as to discourage voting for the opponant (Jeffery Epstien, diddling Ukraine, etc.). All the time, many (most?) independents are certain of the insincerity and outright dishonesty (not to mention corrupt money and poweer grabs) of many (most?) politicians of both major parties.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 1
It's not a matter of what they want. If the President calls them and tells them to vote for the bill, or he'll savage them on social media, then they'll vote for the bill.
Al,
You know what is great about a fantastic Persian carpet? The pattern is so controlled and even predictable.
We marvel at these carpets because human beings do not follow patterns for long or remain predictable.
The human mind is a paradox.
At some point, people are going to turn Trump's noise down and stop listening.
If he told the truth, people would have stopped listening already. Lying means we have been listening for longer.
There is always a larger mousetrap. Will Trump produce it or the other politicos? He is not the only man in the room.
No. of Recommendations: 1
But there is NO middle party.
Last I checked, Congress is not France. We did luck out—low bar.
Congress is full of what the English call backbenchers. Quieter voices that are somewhat more rational.
The consensus to pass a CR has to come from those voices. But his terms are going to change.
