No. of Recommendations: 18
Just For Fun, my "Indexers Crow Omen" has recently triggered.
It's triggering has historically meant, I'm gonna get to buy some BRK at a reasonable price soon!
It triggers when I start reading posts like the following in my travels around the inter-webs'
'I don't understand why people pay so much attention to this failed stock picker (Buffett).'
'Since 2003, he has trailed both the S&P 500 and Total Stock Index.'
'His results since 2009 are abysmal, even with the Apple pick.'
'You would've been better off investing in S&P 500 instead of all this sound & fury.'
Signal recieved, Loud and clear!
When Berkshire is being outperformed (at least temporarily) by an Index Fund
(in which 60% of the companies have only one purpose for existence: enriching management by buying back overpriced shares and gifting them back to themselves!
Not always in that order.)
I know the jig is almost up!
A few other stats I enjoy following'
The boring 1YR T-Bill is yielding 5.14% VS the S&P500 earnings yield of 4.77%.(Roughly half of that 4.77 yield is going into the pockets of management. See Bloomstran report.)
P/Sales is 2.28, It hit 0.80 in 2009 as the bear market bottomed, if you'd like an idea of what is possible.
P/E is 21, was 14 in 2011.
Schiller is P/E 28, was 15 at the 2009 bottom.
P/Book, is 3.95 was 1.7 at the 2009 bottom.
Buffett Indicator currently 142, hit 66 at the 2009 bottom.
Valuations do matter for the long term investor...
Over the last 100 years the S&P 500 took three long, interesting trips to nowhere,
underperforming risk-free Treasury bills for 53 of those 100 years (1929-1945, 1959-1982, and 1995-2009).
Or maybe,
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." ~Irving Fisher
All The Best!
