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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Brookfield Corporation (BN)
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 488 
Subject: growth & components
Date: 02/19/2023 3:38 PM
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[belated congrats to manlobbi and all the value-add MF mafia]

wanted to post 2 topics of worth :

A. should we have a view on the viability of the underlying strategic components?
all alt managers differ, and bubbles are expected to rise in the components. what about correlation and timing among these?
(current opinion by some is that private credit already in a bubble)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpHX9LDaAAEzf_I?format...
[thx, red deer]

B. it is widely reported that the alternatives space is expected to grow madly, but little is noted that much of this relies on success of retail recruitment (specifically the High Net Worth Investor fleeing conventional vehicles such as mutual funds, 60\40,etc...). which Alt Managers are too overconfident in pursuit of their true targets? will salesmanship become the most important intangible?

https://www.ft.com/content/0fd7b929-e86e-43ec-952a...

Fund managers pitch 'alts' to retail investors as institutions max out.
A saturated market for institutional clients is pushing asset managers to pursue another business: selling so-called alternative investments to rich individual investors.
...
Institutions typically invest between 30-50 per cent of their assets in alternatives, according to a study by McKinsey. The average retail investor had just 2 per cent in alternatives, the same study said.
...
Asset managers are turning to affluent individual investors for new business as institutions hit self-imposed limits on allocations to alternatives, also known as 'alts' in the industry. They are reaching them through wealth management, a business that combines asset management with financial planning and advice and is expected to swell from $137tn in assets in 2021 to almost $230tn by 2030, according to Bain, the consultancy.
'The bottom line is if you think about the size of the market, high net worth is as big as institutional wealth. These are massive markets that have been largely untapped,' said Joan Solotar, the head of private wealth solutions at Blackstone, the alternative asset management group.
...
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 488 
Subject: Re: growth & components
Date: 03/21/2024 4:20 PM
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as posted above in this thread, brookfield (pre-BN split) had the smallest Private Equity revenue exposure of the major alts in 2022. (anything more recent appreciated !)

there have been multiple sources pointing to the 2024 trouble PE has, given 4 major metrics estimated from public sources are hurting :

FCF margins of ~0
EBITA margins at ~30% of S&P500
# of company Exits down ~50% since 2021
Revenue growth down ~50%, to same as S&P500
____________________
(ref: mostly verdad)

of course what we dont know are the quasi-proprietary multiples (nor validity) assigned at each alt manager, as this is mechanism by which perceived volatility is suppressed.

so lucky or not, relative positioning for BN should be ok.

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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 488 
Subject: Re: growth & components
Date: 12/15/2024 10:13 AM
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suddenly, a huge wave of new retail marks for PE looks promising?

...Biden administration opposed allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private markets believing such a move would endanger retirees.
However, William Birdthistle, the SEC’s outgoing director of the division of investment management, said in a Dec. 3 New York Times opinion piece that he believes a Trump administration will be lobbied by the industry—which supported Trump’s presidency—to allow it.
Birdthistle argued against the change, saying that “private funds, by operating largely outside of securities regulations, engage in riskier investing behavior and are not transparent about their activities. Should anything go amiss with those investments, the losses would fall upon American nest eggs. Then it would be millions of ordinary Americans, not just wealthy fund managers, seeking government support for poorly performing private funds,” he concluded.


as of ~2 years ago, brookfield had the least exposure to PE among the major alts providers, as estimated by 3rd-party.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2e4q...
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