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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: BandonDunes   😊 😞
Number: of 16627 
Subject: PILOT
Date: 08/04/2025 11:21 AM
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Did WEB overpay for Pilot? A respected writer on SA posted this snippet yesterday:


That leaves Pilot, with sales and margins both down. While retail volumes improved, revenue from bulk fuel sales and trading were both lower. As I stated at the 2023 annual meeting, I believe Berkshire greatly overpaid for Pilot by basing some of the purchase price on sales during a year of record fuel margins. Overall, Berkshire spent $13.65 billion to buy Pilot in three tranches. As you see below in my valuation model, if we value Pilot on H1 2025 sales at a multiple similar to Canadian fuel retailer Couche Tard (ATD:CA), fair value for Pilot would be more like $8 billion. Fuel margins could recover, but Pilot may end up being one of Warren's mistakes requiring an impairment charge.
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Author: nola622   😊 😞
Number: of 16627 
Subject: Re: PILOT
Date: 08/04/2025 11:30 AM
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Did WEB overpay for Pilot? A respected writer on SA posted this snippet yesterday:


That leaves Pilot, with sales and margins both down. While retail volumes improved, revenue from bulk fuel sales and trading were both lower. As I stated at the 2023 annual meeting, I believe Berkshire greatly overpaid for Pilot by basing some of the purchase price on sales during a year of record fuel margins. Overall, Berkshire spent $13.65 billion to buy Pilot in three tranches. As you see below in my valuation model, if we value Pilot on H1 2025 sales at a multiple similar to Canadian fuel retailer Couche Tard (ATD:CA), fair value for Pilot would be more like $8 billion. Fuel margins could recover, but Pilot may end up being one of Warren's mistakes requiring an impairment charge.




Yes, most likely. Greg and Warren knew they were overpaying for the last tranche of Pilot. They probably got a fair deal on the earlier buys.

Revenue from Bulk fuel sales and trading are down because Pilot is exiting many of these non-core businesses. They completely exited the trading business. The water pipeline and water trucking business sound like the next businesses to be disposed of. When they dispose of these businesses, the seeking alpha writer will point to falling revenues again.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/pilot-sale-explore...

Pilot is paying down their once-substantial debt fairly quickly. The debt was expensive bank debt when Berkshire took control but was "re-financed" with National Indemnity as the lender.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a write down of the considerable good-will, but I think Pilot will turn out just fine.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 16627 
Subject: Re: PILOT
Date: 08/04/2025 12:24 PM
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It would be fairly tricky to do a comparison to Alimentation Couche-Tard like that. ATD have quite the geographic mix, and presumably a different fraction of sales from fuel, and a lot of stores not attached to fuel stops. I had the impression that Pilot's line of locations was more homogeneous.

I'm not saying that Berkshire didn't overpay; I don't have an opinion on that. Mr Buffett was certainly scathing about the Pilot folks in the annual report, in his coded way. Maybe they succeeded in gaming the second payment after all.

Jim
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 16627 
Subject: Re: PILOT
Date: 08/05/2025 1:59 PM
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Yes, most likely. Greg and Warren knew they were overpaying for the last tranche of Pilot. They probably got a fair deal on the earlier buys.

...

I'm not saying that Berkshire didn't overpay; I don't have an opinion on that. Mr Buffett was certainly scathing about the Pilot folks in the annual report, in his coded way. Maybe they succeeded in gaming the second payment after all.



There were 3 tranches and the price of the second and third were to be based on parameters that seem to have been gamed by the selling parties, for the second tranche, if you believe (as I do) Berkshire's allegations.

Tranche 1: 2017, $2.8b for 38.6% of the business, valuing the company at $7.3b;

Tranche 2: January, 2023, $8.2b for another 41.4% of the business, valuing it at $19.8b;

Tranche 3: January, 2024, $2.6b for the last 20% of the business, valuing it at $13b.


In 2023, Berkshire claimed that the Haslams had been offering payments to Pilot executives to goose short-term profits and thus make the numbers more favourable to the sellers:

In its countersuit, Berkshire said it learned this month that Jimmy Haslam had as early as March devised a scheme to secretly promise "massive side payments" to high-level Pilot employees, in order to inflate short-term profit at the Knoxville, Tennessee-based business.
Berkshire said it believes the promised payments affected the employees' day-to-day decision-making, giving them incentives to make short-term decisions that would boost the Haslams' profit at the expense of Pilot's long-term value.
It also said Haslam then hid those payments, including from its National Indemnity Co unit, known as NICO.
"By secretly distorting the incentives of [Pilot] employees for personal gain, Haslam breached the fiduciary duties he owes to [Pilot] and NICO," Berkshire said.
"Haslam's outrageous and illegitimate scheme has harmed and threatens to further harm [Pilot] and, by extension, NICO and Berkshire," it added.


https://www.reuters.com/legal/buffetts-berkshire-c...

The case may have looked bad enough for the Haslams that they agreed to settle before the case came to trial, and as part of the settlement, I suspect they may have agreed to a lower price for the 3rd tranche in exchange for dropping his legal case against the Haslam family. So Berkshire may have gotten ripped off on the second tranche but got a reasonable price on the third. But we will probably never know for sure.

dtb



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