Over the past five months (June to November 2022), in­fla­tion has slowed to a crawl. Whether mea­sured by the con­sumer-price in­dex, or CPI, which most peo­ple watch, or the price in­dex for per­sonal con­sump­tion ex­pen­di­tures, or PCE, which the Fed­eral Re­serve prefers, the an­nu­al­ized in­fla­tion rate has been around 2.5% over these five months.
...
Yes, you read that right. Yet hardly any­one has no­ticed this stun­ning de­vel­op­ment be­cause of the near-uni­ver­sal con­centra­tion on price changes mea­sured over 12-month pe­ri­ods...

By chance I was one who noticed it, and posted about it.
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=25988498

But I would not be *too* sanguine--as that post also notes, a lot of the slowdown is likely due to the recent pullback in energy prices.

Core inflation is still running pretty hot in the US.
Year on year has been around 6% for some time now, give or take, and the four month annualized rate is only down to 4.9%.

I do expect core inflation to pull back some more, the same way headline CPI has, though perhaps less so and more gradually.
For two reasons:
First, monetary tightening is no fun, but it tends to work--after a lag. 18 months is often cited.
And second, it's often helpful to keep an eye on the money supply.
Six month rate of growth of divisia M4 has actually been negative for six months now, now at -1.3%/year rate down from 4.9%/year in the six months ending March.
Year on year is only +0.2%.
Where broad money supply goes (measured in a meaningful way), big trends in inflation frequently follow.
The divisia M4 growth spike showed up in the April 2020 numbers, long before the headline CPI jumped.
Then the DM4 growth rate faded very rapidly, and has slowly drifted even lower.

Jim

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