No. of Recommendations: 7
Any thoughts / opinions?
Earnings per share growth is forecast to be anemic for the next couple of years in contrast to about 45% a year over the last five. The story here seems to have changed. The company was accelerating fast and now appears to be slamming into a wall.
It looks like only a few analysts follow Medifast, so it's safe to say that there isn't a consensus when it comes to future earnings, rather just a couple of opinions.
Medifast is in good financial shape and management appears confident about the business in as much as they are paying out about half of this year's net earnings in dividends. The present P/E and the high dividend yield are likely to be a floor under the stock in the event of no-to-slow earnings growth. But, if earnings slump in any meaningful way the stock price will surely follow. In general, It seems to me that the weight-loss business is potentially fraught with boom or bust. There's no end of possible machinations when it comes to promising a slimmer you in exchange for your hard earned cash.
Consider Weight Watchers. WW hit peak earnings about 10 years ago, but since then they have been on a roller coaster and are expected to book a loss for this year. The stock price is a twentieth of what it was at its peak in 2018. This is all probably more because of the nature of the dieting business than Weight Watchers tried and true approach being particularly flawed.
For what it is worth Morningstar gives MED a Very High Uncertainty rating. Although Value Line is more sanguine about their prospects, I think that, in spite of good financials and impressive growth, the view ahead is still vague enough to make investing in this company a gamble and that things might equally play out well, or poorly.
Value or value trap? Only time will tell.
