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- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well, if RFK Jr. does in fact drop out and endorse Kamala, it would restore a smidgen of respect in my book. But I won't be holding my breath. Are Jill Stein and Cornel West still at all a problem? And who the hell is Chase Oliver? Never even heard of this guy!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third-party_and_inde...
No. of Recommendations: 2
Well, if RFK Jr. does in fact drop out and endorse Kamala, it would restore a smidgen of respect in my book. But I won't be holding my breath. Are Jill Stein and Cornel West still at all a problem? And who the hell is Chase Oliver? Never even heard of this guy!
*****
LOL - RUNNING an asterisk campaign, peddling even weirder conspiracies than Trump---but all one has to do is endorse the one who was given the nomination for free. LOL
Psst: Stein and West "Problems" - you mean, running for office in a "democracy!".
Toss in trying to disqualify Greens in Wisconsin.
Putin's soulmates -----on the Left
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 1
<sigh> Somehow I thought the original link - and subject - was saying that RFK Jr. might drop out and support Kamala... I must be smoking something...
No. of Recommendations: 2
intercst: the Kennedy campaign is contemplating the possibility of withdrawing from the presidential race and endorsing Donald Trump.
Will someone explain the logic here? Trump loves to take credit for the COVID vaccine. RFK Jr's support is based almost entirely on his opposition to the COVID vaccine. So where's the logic in that endorsement?
No. of Recommendations: 2
Will someone explain the logic here?
Trump is promising him something...a position in his cabinet? Or something.
Then Trump can renege on the deal or just throw him under the bus later.
Or maybe RFK Jr will fit perfectly into the Trump kakistocracy, worm brain and all.
No. of Recommendations: 4
So where's the logic in that endorsement?
What we do know is that RFK has zero chance of winning. So all he will do is pull voters away from either Trump or Harris. Given his public statements, I'm going to guess he'd pull lots more voters away from Trump than from Harris.
Switching tracks for a moment, what's a desperate convict to do if he wants to stay out of jail? He needs RFK to drop out so that those voters will vote for the convict instead. With an incredibly close election, every vote counts. So how to get RFK to drop out?
Going into full-on speculation, this desperate convict might promise RFK a good job in his administration in exchange for dropping out and endorsing all convicts in the upcoming election. That solves two problems. RFK gets to stay relevant, and the convict gets more votes. Win-win. But there is a problem with this plan. Fortunately, its one that RFK is dumb enough to either ignore the problem completely or to think that he will be the exception to the rule that the convict uses people and then tosses them aside like garbage once they are no longer useful to him.
The problem is that RFK is giving his side of the bargain now, while Trump would have to follow through on his side at some time in the future. And we all know how good Trump is at keeping his promises to people like RFK.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 1
ges: Trump is promising him something...a position in his cabinet?
Sorry, I mean what is the logic for RFK Jr voters to vote for Trump, the guy who brags about Operation Warp Speed and the COVID vaccine when they support Kennedy for his opposition to vaccinations?
BTW, if Trump promised Kennedy a cabinet position for his endorsement, that's illegal.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Trump is promising him something...a position in his cabinet? Or something.
I perked up when Trump was talking to RFK because RFK is a marginally thin increase, and Trump wants it. Trump was recognizing things weren't going well.
No. of Recommendations: 1
BTW, if Trump promised Kennedy a cabinet position for his endorsement, that's illegal.
you think that matters to Trump?
I think Trump is getting desperate and if he thinks he can bring in a few more votes with RFK Jr, I think he'll go for it.
We'll see.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I mean what is the logic for RFK Jr voters to vote for Trump, the guy who brags about Operation Warp Speed and the COVID vaccine when they support Kennedy for his opposition to vaccinations?
Well, in spite of the vaccination stuff, there's still a lot more in common between RFK and Trump than there is between RFK and Harris. So if you're an RFK supporter and he drops out, the logical alternative is Trump, not Harris.
BTW, if Trump promised Kennedy a cabinet position for his endorsement, that's illegal.
Very funny. So being illegal will stop Trump from doing something?? For him, that a reason TO do it.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 1
Very funny. So being illegal will stop Trump from doing something?? For him, that a reason TO do it.
And he has a 6 to 3 SC majority that will back him up.
No. of Recommendations: 3
RFK is the lunatic vote, which would go to trump anyway in a 2-person race.
media is reporting that the Harris team would not pick up the phone when RFK tried to first trade on his name to the Dems.
(despite being very publicly disavowed by the larger Kennedy clan)
no such qualms with the GOP.
No. of Recommendations: 1
no such qualms with the GOP.
And Trump is getting desperate.
No. of Recommendations: 9
RFK is the lunatic vote, which would go to trump anyway in a 2-person race. Actually not. As Philip Bump explains in this WaPo column, Kamala actually has a bigger lead with RFK out of the race than with him in it. The difference is small (1 point) but it’s hardly a given that RFK dropping out (as is now expected) will change much at all.
For one thing, his support is very small, now that Biden has dropped out. His polling numbers dropped substantially immediately after than announcement and have not recovered. Also, the polling is largely national, but RFK isn’t even on the ballot in many states.
I read the column a couple days ago, (and am in the airport awaiting boarding so, no review) but it seems that there are large blocks who were disenchanted with Biden: Latinos, younger, who in a three person choice between Biden & Trump were choosing RFK, but in a two person race went to Harris.
RFK’s exit might actually help the Dems, or at least be close to neutral.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/21...
No. of Recommendations: 5
Actually not. As Philip Bump explains in this WaPo column, Kamala actually has a bigger lead with RFK out of the race than with him in it. The difference is small (1 point) but it’s hardly a given that RFK dropping out (as is now expected) will change much at all.I'm not sure that Bump's analysis tells us anything meaningful. Comparing the head-to-heads with the multi-candidate race is certainly going to be within margins of errors of those two questions, of course; but it ignores two major real world differences. The first is that RFK would
endorse Trump, which is different than him simply not being available as a choice. The second is that state-by-state races matter far more than the national one.
So if least
some of RFK's supporters are actually supporters, then some of the folks that might vote Harris (or just stay home) if RFK just dropped out might end up moving to Trump if RFK partners up with Trump. That RFK can help Trump with his endorsement, not just his absence. Plus, RFK might bring his funding source (Nicole Shanahan) with him.
And Harris polls slightly better in the multi-way
in swing states than the head-to-head. Which I wouldn't make much of, since the margins of error are even bigger in the state polls than the national - but still, if you're guessing which way the slight benefit runs, I'd say Trump:
https://www.newsweek.com/how-rfk-jr-dropping-out-w...
No. of Recommendations: 1
well, there is also a haley faction that moved to harris, despite the latest hypocrite to endorse trump.
but it seems more probable that all these individually tiny groups more-or-less cancel out rather than have any net significant pull towards either candidate. hell, even the weather itself may be a bigger factor than these small groups, given how many americans like voting in person.
speaking of weather, i wonder how large a group are 'fair weather' trump fans, that actually drop out from voting if they perceive an upcoming loss?
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/08/14/th...
No. of Recommendations: 6
Here's another take on the effect of RFK dropping out.
The hot take is that with Biden in the race, the polling was 38.6% Biden, 42.1% Trump, and 9.2% Kennedy. (The math says 10.1% undecided or other)
Currently, with Harris, the polls show 46.0% Harris, 43.3% Trump, and 5.2% Kennedy. (Again math says 5.5% undecided or other)
Without Kennedy, it's 49.2% Harris, and 47.6% Trump. (leaving 3.2% undecided)
So switching from Biden to Harris pulled 4% away from Kennedy and another 4+% out of undecided, with over 7% going to Harris and 1.1% going to Trump. Clearly, this change was terrible news for Trump, and since we're in a political forum, I'll add that it's great news for Democrats. Clearly the right move.
Getting Kennedy out of the race cuts into Harris' lead, but not by much, and still leaves things within the margin of error, I suspect. The data are a composite of multiple polls, so there's no stated margin of error. But polls typically have a MOE something in the 3-4% range, with some big national (and therefore sort of useless) polls getting down to maybe 2.5%.
What struck me the most is the drop in the combination of Kennedy and undecideds going from Biden to Harris. My guess is that a lot of those folks weren't all that thrilled with Biden, but simply couldn't vote for Trump. So they split between Kennedy and undecided. Swapping in Harris gave those folks an option they could back. Those who insisted on voting could do their protest vote for Kennedy, and the rest might have just stayed home.
Removing Kennedy from the race is much harder to discern. All of the movements - including undecideds - are likely within the margin of error. So they don't tell us much.
3 minute video from MSNBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsupxXo-qN8--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 2
but it ignores two major real world differences. The first is that RFK would endorse Trump, which is different than him simply not being available as a choice. The second is that state-by-state races matter far more than the national one.
I have always questioned the value of “endorsements”, at least from politicians or others without clout. In the case of a union perhaps it means something, although I recall Nixon getting a huge union vote even as the union leaders were endorsing Democrats. Anyway, I expect the “endorsement”, if it comes, to be almost meaningless.
Second, the state by state races matter most, of course, but then they did prior to the expected withdrawal, so it’s hard to see why that’s a component of your argument. It was before, it is now, it will be if he drops out. Or if he doesn’t. Is there some dramatic difference in some state somewhere I’m not aware of? He’s from California. So what? California goes for Harris either way. He claims he’s from New York. So what? New York goes for Harris either way. Is there some phenomenon about Pennsylvania or Virginia or Nevada or wherever that swings this meaningfully?
