No. of Recommendations: 8
Let's be generous and say there were a couple of dozen genuine nutjobs who really thought they were going to bust in the Capitol and install Trump as Presidente for Life.
What as their probability of success?
That's not the generous framing. Rather, the generous framing is that there were a couple of dozen nutjobs who thought they were going to bust in the Capitol and prevent Joe Biden from being certified as the winner of the election.
Did that have a great probability of success in achieving that goal? Perhaps not, but probably no worse chance of success than other incidents that typically are considered insurrections/rebellions (like John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry, Nat Turner's slave revolt, or the Whiskey Rebellion).
