The issue is that those dollars grow untaxed in the IRA vs growing after-tax in the Roth. What we are seeing is that our net worth 10 years from now is significantly higher if we just wait and be forced to take the higher RMD having not done the conversion.

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If the tax rates do not change, math says the after tax value of either strategy would be the same.

If you pay the taxes now and the rates decline then conversion resulted in more taxes that if you waited.

If you let it ride and pay the taxes later, and the tax rate has risen by that time, then you would pay more taxes than if you paid up front in the conversion.

Personally, I think rates are more likely to increase than decrease over the long term. So there is little downside to converting now resulting in higher total taxes.

The other thing that motivates me is leaving a sizable Roth Account to my children, one they owe zero taxes on when they take a withdrawal. Versus leaving them with an IRA, withdrawals from which will be pushing their taxable income even higher.

Retirement Investing FAQ

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