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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Brookfield Corporation (BN)
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Author: Baybrooke   😊 😞
Number: of 488 
Subject: Re: Before this cycle ends
Date: 10/02/2023 1:41 AM
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but if rates stay high won't get anywhere as much "growth"

                           1925-1999     2000-2022

3 month t-bill 4% 1.5%
10 year treasury yield 5% 3%
Real short rate 1% -1%
SP500 dividend yield 4% 2%
SP500 P/E ratio 14x 19x

Rates are not historically high. Above is the average for the range. They have merely reverted back to the 20th century average. We had a long period of unusually low rates after the 2008 global financial crisis as a result of ZIRP and QE.

Nobody knows what rates will do in the future, but the point to contemplate is that nominal rates don't matter as much as long as they are in some normal sensible range. Nominal rates will be high or low depending on what inflation does. But in both scenarios, investors are looking for a positive real return and nominal bonds won't meet the need. Real yield on TIPS was negative during the last decade. At least now, it's in the positive 1 - 2% range. But Brookfield funds promise a significantly higher real return. What's an institutional investor going to do? Buy treasuries at 5% or TIPS at 2%? That's not enough real return for them to meet their obligations. That's why I feel raising funds won't be a problem for Brookfield even in today's higher rate environment. Financial assets may get priced lower at say 14x instead of 19x, but I fully expect fee bearing capital to reach 1 trillion in the next 5 years.
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