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No new signals. DBE with GTR1 settings will trigger about one week earlier than this.
Modern Family: 9 of 9 Crossed below long-term DMAC(50,200).
Market Trends: CountIF(Bullish) 5 of 15 "Bullish" = "Risk_Off"
My Rankings: ROE_GMI 7 "Buy" and 17 "Sell", some Defensive style stocks are filtering in.

  Modern Family     Symbol    Status   ChgD  Confirmed  Roles: (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)
S&P 500 ETF Trust     SPY    BEARish    28      Yes     - major player U.S. index fund of 500 market cap-weighted companies
Russell 1000EW ETF   EQAL    BEARish    49      Yes     - gauge the health of 1000 equal-weighted companies within the U.S.
Russell 1000 ETF      IWB    BEARish    29      Yes     - gauge the health of 1000 Giant(45%), Large(32%) & Medium(20%) companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 ETF      IWM    BEARish    62      Yes     - gauge the health of 2000 Small(55%) & Micro(43%) companies within the U.S.
Transportation ETF    IYT    BEARish    49      Yes     - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail ETF            XRT    BEARish    44      Yes     - measure strength of economy and consumer confidence
Regional Banks ETF    KRE    BEARish    49      Yes     - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech ETF           IBB    BEARish    34      Yes     - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor ETF     SMH    BEARish    37      Yes     - innovation: a major player technology trends
   As of (LastD) =          17-Apr-25                   More Details: Posted end of month by mapg on the Mechanical Investing board (shrewdm.com)

   Market Trends       TPPO(2,3,4)  Status   Longer     Inter   Shorter   MAC(10m)   Status    Status    DBE(5m)   Status   Status      CountIF     Risk
 Intermediate-Term       Signal     (ChgD)  PPO(2:1)  PPO(3:1)  PPO(4:1)    Signal   (ChgD)  (TPw,210)    Signal   (ChgD)  Hi(99MD)    (Bullish)    Gauges
SP600 (IJR) Daily        BEARish      69     -3.58%    -6.18%    -7.90%    BEARish     43     -15.84%    Bullish     638      99           1      Risk_Off
SP400 (MDY) Daily        BEARish      51     -2.46%    -4.46%    -5.83%    BEARish     38     -11.23%    Bullish     645      99           1      Risk_Off
SP500EW (RSP) Daily      BEARish      43     -1.69%    -3.09%    -4.02%    BEARish     29      -7.10%    Bullish     645      96           1      Risk_Off
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily      BEARish      43     -2.01%    -3.74%    -4.83%    BEARish     30      -7.59%    Bullish     806      39           1      Risk_Off
SP500 (.SPX) Daily       BEARish      42     -1.80%    -3.41%    -4.43%    BEARish     30      -6.88%    Bullish     806      39           1      Risk_Off
    As of (LastD) =     17-Apr-25     ---     ---       ---       ---     17-Apr-25    ---      ---     17-Apr-25    ---     ---          ---     17-Apr-25
 CountIF(Bullish) =         0                                                 0                             5                              5      Risk_Off

        My Rankings           17-Apr-25                     1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9     10    Buy  HTD    Sell
1- MAA: Long-Term (BRKB)      1-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        BRK.B  FSPSX  FBIIX  FUAMX  FXNAX  FXAIX  FSMAX  FFNOX  -      -      --   BRKB    --
2- MAA: Multi-Asset ETF's     2-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        IYLD   AOK    AOM    AOR    AOA    RLY    -      -      -      -       1     0     5
3- QAA: Market ETF's          3-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        CMDY   SDS    XLG    IEFA   USRT   PRF    TLT    PRFZ   -      -       2     1     5
4- QAA: Enhanced ETF's        4-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        USMV   EFAV   MTUM   LRGF   COMT   SIZE   QUAL   VLUE   -      -       2     0     6
6- QEW: Equal-Wght'd ETF's    6-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        EQWL   EDOW   EUSA   RSP    EQAL   QQQE   -      -      -      -       0     0     6
5- ROE_GMI (1 thru 10 of 25)  5-RS: ROC() & TMAC()        FTNT   PPC    COKE   ABT    RL     META   MOH    LII    DVA    LLY     7     1     17
5- ROE_GMI (11 thru 20)       5-Alloc: BuyIF Top 15       GWW    FLEX   ACM    RMD    CLX    KLAC   IDXX   NVDA   GOOGL  MSFT   --    --     --
5- ROE_GMI (21 thru 25)       5-Alloc: SellIF Bottom 5    ZTS    UTHR   IT     GEHC   OMC    -      -      -      -      -      --    --     --

GD_

This is an attempt to guage how the recent selloff compares to the 10 year history. Not what I expected.

10 YR HISTORY  Date       Open         High         Low          Close          APO(50,100)            APO(33,100)           APO(25,100)           EMA(100,Modern)                PPO(50,100)  PPO(33,100)  PPO(25,100)    RANK(50,100)  BOTTOM
 
 
S&P 500 .SPX   04-Jan-19     2,474.33     2,538.07     2,474.33     2,531.94                  (65.97)              (110.84)              (137.94)                     2,694.12         -2.45%       -4.11%       -5.12%               4
 
S&P 500 .SPX   03-Apr-20     2,514.92     2,538.18     2,459.96     2,488.65                 (127.40)              (235.95)              (306.06)                     2,954.33         -4.31%       -7.99%      -10.36%               7  LOWEST
 
S&P 500 .SPX   11-Mar-22     4,279.50     4,291.01     4,200.49     4,204.31                  (44.72)               (93.48)              (125.27)                     4,474.29         -1.00%       -2.09%       -2.80%               2
 
S&P 500 .SPX   21-Jun-22     3,715.31     3,779.65     3,715.31     3,764.79                 (139.38)              (216.25)              (260.93)                     4,209.65         -3.31%       -5.14%       -6.20%               6
 
S&P 500 .SPX   14-Oct-22     3,690.41     3,712.00     3,579.68     3,583.07                 (109.70)              (170.15)              (210.21)                     3,950.64         -2.78%       -4.31%       -5.32%               5
 
S&P 500 .SPX   03-Nov-23     4,334.23     4,373.62     4,334.23     4,358.34                   (7.55)               (33.10)               (49.39)                     4,326.04         -0.17%       -0.77%       -1.14%               1
 
S&P 500 .SPX   17-Apr-25     5,305.45     5,328.31     5,255.58     5,282.70                 (103.23)              (194.77)              (253.26)                     5,719.60         -1.80%       -3.41%       -4.43%               3

GD_

<<This is an attempt to guage how the recent selloff compares to the 10 year history. Not what I expected.>>

GD, could you expand a bit on what you mean -- what were you expecting, and how did the comparison differ from your expectations?

GD, could you expand a bit on what you mean -- what were you expecting, and how did the comparison differ from your expectations?

The market has not yet lost even half(%) of the previous losses during covid 2020 period. I expected worse.

I get the impression from the media and some here are expecting a total disaster in US markets and economy under this administration. Maybe we will.

I think we were already going there under the other adminstration and big changes were needed to avoid total disaster.

So lets just wait and see if we can avoid becoming Venezuela-USA or another failed nation. It is not yet clear.

GD_

I think we were already going there under the other adminstration and big changes were needed to avoid total disaster.

Some people would beg to differ.


https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/...

If we try and keep the geo-political ramifications ( all of which look pretty grim BTW) aside and just look at it from a quasi-quant and macroeconomic perspective

(1) Any drag-on and back-and-forth leads to uncertainty and freeze on businesses and lack of clarity ie Not good for markets
(2) Even say it converges - and given this is the admins fervent "belief elixir" - to a pooled rate of ~10-12% - its an ABSOLUTE rise of about +10% in the taxation rate of goods.

Scenario 1 : Depending on Gross Margins - lets say 2-3% of it , absolute level is absorbed by the businesses . The rest of it will get passed on - so about 8-9%

NDX roughly doubled when Corporate taxes went from 33% to 21% ie 1/3 rd marginal impact ~11/33 .... while this would be similar or a bit more.


Scenario 2: Everything gets passed onto consumers.

That would be rampant inflation. And everything would be determined by demand elasticity ( ie Staples will do better. Discretionary will be decimated)


Irrespective: If your Operating margins are <10% and in the 8-9% range - and you are exposed - your marginal profitability is a straight impact.

Logically, none of these scenarios look that rosy!

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