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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: when will small caps rebound?
Date: 07/23/25 11:37 AM
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I'm guessing that taking only from the top 1/4 or 1/2 by market cap and also positive ROE would take care of that.

Makes sense. I am certain there are plenty of decent firms in there.

I see three main issues regarding jumping heavily into the small end:

* The companies are not so hot any more on average, as mentioned. Judicious selection should help that.
* The construction of the Russell 2000 index is hazardous to your health, don't invest in it, at least not any time near the middle of the year. It is FAR too easy to front run the reconstitution, and the drag has been estimated to be huge, around 2.2%/year. Judicious selection should avoid that problem.
* Valuation levels no longer seem to get a break. Judicious selection might not help. There are LOTS of people looking for growing firms about to rise up into the R1000 or S&P500, so they tend to get bid up enough that you you have to be better than the pack at picking the winners of the race. The ones that aren't on that trajectory are slower growing and likely to remain at second-tier valuation levels.

Jim
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