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Author: rayvt   😊 😞
Number: of 4357 
Subject: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/20/2025 12:40 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Pure RS screen
A tweek on Baltassar screen

Baltassar mentioned, probably in tongue in cheek: https://gtr1.net/2013/?~S%26P500%20top%2010:s20090... (https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=117608162)

I simplified and cleaned it up to get: https://gtr1.net/2013/?~S%26P500%20top%2010:s20090...

20.7% CAGR vs. 16.3%

It's better with Nasdaq 100 at 22.4%. Much more volatile, though.

Starting 2009 is shorter period than I like in a backtest.

Starting 1990 feels better.
SP500: 15.7% vs Nas100: 23.5% Volatilities almost equal.
Nas has lower turnover.






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Author: musselmant   😊 😞
Number: of 4357 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/20/2025 9:21 PM
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https://gtr1.net/2013/?~S%26P500%20top%2010:s20090...

You can improve the CAGR with an annual hold and get short-term US capital gains tax rates.
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Author: musselmant   😊 😞
Number: of 4357 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/21/2025 11:10 AM
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obviously I meant "get long term US capital gains tax rates"; with that benefit your real return shoots up if you are trading in a taxable account.
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Author: rayvt   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/21/2025 12:01 PM
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obviously I meant "get long term US capital gains tax rates"; with that benefit your real return shoots up if you are trading in a taxable account.

Best to do this type of frequent trading in an IRA or ROTH.


There is a saying "Don't let the tax tail overrule your return dog."

Running the same GTR backtests, Sp500 rrs(1,252) top 10, HTD 12, for 20 days and same for 252 days,
top 10 is CAGR 16.0% vs. 13.8%
Top 5 is CAGR 19.7% vs. 14.1%

Nasdaq100,
top 10 23.6% vs. 14.5%


LTCG tax rate is 15%

Sort term rate is same as ordinary income rate, generally for most of us, 22% or 24%.
12% if you are broke. But broke people don't generally invest. ;-)

So, which is better? 15% tax on 13.8% or 22% tax on 16.0%.


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Author: musselmant   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/21/2025 7:12 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
21% for annual trading; use the link I have
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Author: timwa   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/21/2025 8:11 PM
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Thank you both for this discussion, as it applies to me, a retired person of annual moderate income earnings below social security taxation limits. I've been using successful MI in my IRA accounts but will soon be opening a taxable brokerage account from real estate profits. I am looking forward to using MI in my taxable account.
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Author: Baltassar   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/21/2025 8:21 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I meant "get long term US capital gains tax rates"; with that benefit your real return shoots up if you are trading in a taxable account.

The effect of taxes on net returns can vary quite a bit, depending on your investment horizon, your anticipated rate of return, and your tax situation. Broadly speaking, the advantage of avoiding short-term gains increases with the passage of time, and higher anticipated rates of return.

If you plan to pay for long-term gains annually, rather than only at the end, the difference may be smaller than you expect.

Baltassar
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Author: bacon   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/22/2025 9:07 AM
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obviously I meant "get long term US capital gains tax rates...."

That's OK; in the longer long run, we're all dead anyway.

Eric Hines
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Author: kbg   😊 😞
Number: of 55846 
Subject: Re: Pure RS screen
Date: 09/24/2025 4:02 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
There are some interesting things you can do with aggressive momentum screens and then hedging with the associated index’s futures. Long the screen, short the future at a ratio that dials in a comfortable personal risk level. Pay close attention to what happens when a major bear market begins to recover however.

Of course as Jim likes to say your results may vary and one must be comfortable with “variance” from your benchmark.
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