No. of Recommendations: 22
I was curious about your perspective on Fairfax Financial and Markel, both in terms of confidence in the companies' management and what an attractive valuation might look like.
I have owned both in the past, but own neither now. I haven't really analysed either in quite a few years since divesting from both.
Mr Watsa suffered from the problem that he clearly wasn't nearly as smart as he thought he was. Being really smart isn't really that important, as long as you know your level. Giant confident wagers are great, if you follow Rule #1, but he didn't. I believe I used the term "too swashbuckling". That got me out, so I haven't followed the twists and turns since then, so I can't comment on whether he is reformed or not. I have heard that results have been good, but that by itself isn't enough to sway me without going into deeper analysis. If you take a risky bet and win, it was still a risky bet. I don't feel motivated to dig again given that I put them in the "untrusted pile" a while back.
Markel is, I believe, a much better run firm. Just not one that I have owned in recent years. I made a lot of money then got out in 2018 when I thought it was richly valued, and by the time it was cheap again it was 2020 and a "target rich environment" and I went into other things. On the surface of things, it looks pretty reasonably priced at the moment. It wouldn't be hard to make the case that it's currently a good business at a fair price.
Jim