No. of Recommendations: 31
While I don't agree with the firing, the issue is not the poor July numbers. It is the large restatements for May & June. Trump likely feels if the original reported numbers were more accurate then the Fed would be more inclined to have lowered rates. Of course this may not be true, but the restatements were large and in the same direction. I just don't know who owns the numbers for accuracy? But it may not be unreasonable that it is the person at the top of the department.
First, the BLS releases multiple employment metrics. In addition to the jobs report, it publishes six different measures of unemployment. The Fed has access to all of these, along with its own data, when making interest rate decisions.
Second, large data revisions are, in fact, quite common, especially since the 2000s, as the U.S. economy has become increasingly service oriented. Unfortunately, service based sectors are harder to measure accurately, which has led to more frequent and more substantial revisions to both GDP and employment figures over time. This is not unique to the U.S. as similar patterns are observed in Britain as well. There is nothing nefarious or conspiratorial about it.
Finally, who owns the numbers for accuracy? Well, who determines BLS staffing levels? Who proposed cutting the BLS budget by 8%, forcing the agency to reduce sample sizes and data qualities of the job reports? That person owns the accuracy.
