Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (5) |
Author: FlyingCircus   😊 😞
Number: of 6132 
Subject: Re: A one-year backtest!
Date: 08/20/25 7:59 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
Nagel concluded that because the model was dissecting just 12 months of data, it was simply copying signals that had worked more recently. In other words, it was following a momentum strategy — a well-established trading approach.

... and isn't that what we would expect? A one year backtest trained on 10,000 parameters (most of which are irrelevant or coincident) is as predictive as a one year backtest trained on 10? I mean... that's not even momentum trading.

imagine the cocktail conversation - "I beat the S&P this year by 2% by paying x$$$ for a service that trades based on 10,000 parameters."...

I want the model Bradley Cooper's character used in Limitless.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to FlyingCircus here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (5) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community