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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 1251 
Subject: Re: FKA: NVO
Date: 01/28/25 3:29 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I didn’t expect a Monaco resident to appreciate the dividend! Plus, it’s double counting. Those dividends are just part of the P.

It's true, I don't usually consider a yield when picking a stock. It's a downside for me, really. Dividends are highly taxed for me, whereas retained earnings generally show up as lightly taxed capital gains from a rising share price.

But
(a) I know some other investors appreciate a coupon, and
(b) it really is a small defence against a stock price that languishes for a long time. This is a very old fashioned view, but then again we haven't had a secular bear market for quite a while and people forget what they're like.

So although Novo’s P/E looks reasonable, the E is going to be challenged in the next few years and the ‘bargain price’ may just be the market applying the appropriate haircut.

Opinions differ. I think they'll earn quite a bit of money...probably. Predicting the stock price (or earnings) of any single drug firm is a mug's game, but my expectation is that they'll do OK or quite well. The rise of competition may whack their growth, but my minimally-informed opinion is that their own business will continue to do fine, probably not below recent levels within rounding error.

I think a program of repeated cash-backed near-the-money put writing against NVO (similar to, but different from, covered calls) could do quite well in the next few years, which is my tentative plan. I very much doubt they'll disappear.

Jim
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This community has written 1,241 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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