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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Author: mechinv   😊 😞
Number: of 1020 
Subject: Re: End of an era - profit slowdown
Date: 12/26/2023 7:08 PM
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Getting to north of $12.00 EPS would be IMO a solid year for them

They're already at ~$3.00 EPS for the last quarter. Multiply that by 4. Achieving only $12 annual EPS implies zero percent QoQ EPS growth over the next 4 quarters. That's way too pessimistic, IMO.

Here's Microsoft's actual QoQ EPS growth over the last 3 quarters.
       EPS   QoQ EPS Growth
Q3-23 2.99 11.6%
Q2-23 2.68 9.4%
Q1-23 2.45 11.3%

So MSFT averaged 10% QoQ growth over the last 3 quarters.

More to the point, you had asked what the drivers would be for continuing this level of QoQ growth. I had replied that analysts at MacQuarie estimate that Microsoft will earn north of $10 billion of additional revenue over the next 2 years due to Office 365 Copilot, the GenAI powered task assistant. Does this help answer your question? None of the 10% EPS growth over the last 3 quarters includes any revenue from Copilot.

PS: I am a long term MSFT shareholder and don't plan on selling nor adding at current levels.

Congratulations, and I sincerely hope you have a prosperous year ahead.






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