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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 1
Prof Lichtman explains the process he uses to predict presidential winners. He picked 9 of the last 10 winners, he picked Gore to win, his only miss in 4 decades. He currently believes Harris will win but his final call will be made after the Dem convention. It’s 25 minutes followed by 40 minutes of questions from callers. ☮️🍿
https://www.youtube.com/live/IuS98AcKDZQ?app=deskt...
No. of Recommendations: 2
hclasvegas
Prof Lichtman explains the process he uses to predict presidential winners. He picked 9 of the last 10 winners, he picked Gore to win, his only miss in 4 decades. He currently believes Harris will win but his final call will be made after the Dem convention
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
He should be on track for his 2nd miss "in 4 decades".
However, IF he is correct, outcome will be based on A), or B)
A. All of the massive fraud from 2020, PLUS the added dollop of millions of illegals who have poured across the border who will be encouraged to lie about their US citizenship and cast a vote, will prevail in 2024; OR
B. The multilayer fraud does NOT take place, only citizens vote (and only vote once). Then, we have to acknowledge that this country is too far gone to be saved.
A is far more likely than B.
No. of Recommendations: 15
B. The multilayer fraud does NOT take place, only citizens vote (and only vote once). Then, we have to acknowledge that this country is too far gone to be saved.
A is far more likely than B.
A will not happen as it doesn't correspond to reality. The reality is that there is NO OUTCOME DETERMINATIVE FRAUD in our Presidential Elections. In fact most of the fraud found, though extremely tiny, was Republicans trying to skew the vote. But it's so tiny no one cares. The imaginary voter fraud is huge though, dwarfing all legal votes it takes months to ship in all the ballots form China and then find unguarded ballot boxes to stuff. Hard painstaking imaginary work.
No. of Recommendations: 22
All of the massive fraud from 2020, PLUS the added dollop of millions of illegals who have poured across the border who will be encouraged to lie about their US citizenship and cast a vote, will prevail in 2024;
Apparently you weren’t aware that in almost 4 years, only 3 cases of voter fraud has been proven in a court of law. And they all involved Republican citizens trying to vote for Trump twice.
Otherwise, nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero. Squat.
The most logical reason that no other cases have been found, despite several thorough attempts by Republicans, is because it doesn’t exist in any material way.
Fox even decided to pay out three-quarters of a billion dollars to settle their case about lies of voter fraud. Other cases against Fox are still outstanding.
Elections are already rigged against Democrats (Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc.) and Republicans still lose.
Sadly, our founding fathers never thought about the tyranny of the minority.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Elections are already rigged against Democrats (Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc.) and Republicans still lose. - AW
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Electoral College vs turning the USA into one giant "Safe-District"
gerrymandering - agree, hate it, both sides do it
voter suppression - identifying yourself is not voter suppression
etc - the most heinous of all
No. of Recommendations: 3
The left didn't import 10M new people just to give them free stuff. They expect a vote for their investment.
...and their going to get one! Several million, actually.
The left dislikes secure elections. Intensely.
No. of Recommendations: 17
Electoral College vs turning the USA into one giant "Safe-District"If you call one-person one-vote (aka pure democracy) one giant “Safe-District” then I agree. Safe for America.
gerrymandering - agree, hate it, both sides do itHere’s one list of the 10 worst gerrymandering by states. 1, Maryland, favors the Democrats. The other 9 favor Republicans. Sure, both sides do it but one side does MUCH more.
https://medium.com/rantt/the-top-10-most-gerrymand...voter suppression - identifying yourself is not voter suppressionFrom the Brennan Center for Justice§§:
The modern approach to voter suppression can often be characterized as death by a thousand cuts — seemingly minor rules about issues like voter ID, mail voting, resource allocation at polling places, and voter roll maintenance can add up to create significant burdens, particularly on communities of color.https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-op...Please don’t pretend these rules are put in place because of threats to legitimate voting (which has yet to be proven to even exist in any meaningful way). They are designed to place undue burden on people with the fewest resources, repressing their votes.
etc - the most heinous of allIf you’re referring to the 147 Republicans who voted to overturn a free and fair election because they didn’t like the outcome that American voters chose, then I totally agree that it was heinous. They were traitors to our democracy.
No. of Recommendations: 17
The left didn't import 10M new people just to give them free stuff. They expect a vote for their investment.
If you have proof, show it.
Otherwise you are knowingly spreading a lie.
No. of Recommendations: 3
voter suppression - identifying yourself is not voter suppression
Voting should be easy, registration simple and painless, getting ID to identify yourself should be virtually free and a snap.
No. of Recommendations: 6
For those recalling the previous discussion of Lichtman's Keys, Democrats lost the "incumbent" key with Biden's withdrawal. But they managed to hang on to the "no primary contest" key. In the previous discussion, there was an assumption that there would be a contest for the nomination, which would have cost this key. Biden's immediate endorsement of Harris and the quick coalescence around her means that key stays true.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 5
Poor Bear. Nothing to offer but the tired old lies from 4 years ago. Same thing his candidate is offering, come to think of it.
Not even worth a quick sparring match.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 8
LM,
Immigrants flock to the southern border to escape threats in their home countries, or to earn a better life where the system is less stacked against them, you know, opportunity.
No one comes to vote illegally for free stuff.
fd
No. of Recommendations: 6
However, IF he is correct, outcome will be based on A), or B)
A. All of the massive fraud from 2020, PLUS the added dollop of millions of illegals who have poured across the border who will be encouraged to lie about their US citizenship and cast a vote, will prevail in 2024; OR
B. The multilayer fraud does NOT take place, only citizens vote (and only vote once). Then, we have to acknowledge that this country is too far gone to be saved.
A is far more likely than B.
you are living in a fantasy world completely detached from reality. To be more blunt...that is one huge load of disproven bullshit. Wow.
No. of Recommendations: 15
The left didn't import 10M new people just to give them free stuff. They expect a vote for their investment.
...and their going to get one! Several million, actually.
The left dislikes secure elections. Intensely.
The RW crazy is going off the charts!
They can't vote! How many times do you have to be told?
OMG, the 'left dislikes secure elections'? We HAVE secure elections. The last election was the MOST secure ever. The facts are out there, open your eyes for godssake.
It's Trump and MAGA world who hate free, fair and secure elections. Trump tried to steal an election he clearly LOST, and he will do it again. That's the authoritarian way.
No. of Recommendations: 0
he RW crazy is going off the charts!
They can't vote! How many times do you have to be told?
******
Liberal Plantation owners clarifying: They're here for cheap labor and to bump my portfolio! We won't let them vote. They are 3/5 humans.
Club 401K - Rainbow Colored Hoods and burning incense crosses LOL.
No. of Recommendations: 7
gerrymandering - agree, hate it, both sides do it
Here’s one list of the 10 worst gerrymandering by states. 1, Maryland, favors the Democrats. The other 9 favor Republicans. Sure, both sides do it but one side does MUCH more.
The voters in Utah, where I live, passed a ballot initiative to do away with gerrymandering. This is a deep red state, but it passed with votes from both sides.
And then...the Utah State Legislature, which is totally controlled by the Republican Party said 'no' and blocked the initiative from being implemented. Recently the Utah State Supreme Court said 'no, you can't do that'. We'll see what happens, but Utah Republicans are used to one party rule and they are ruthless in maintaining it.
Utah Senate: 23 Republicans, 6 Democrats
Utah House: 61 Republicans, 14 Democrats
These numbers reflect the Republicans success in gerrymandering.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Otherwise you are knowingly spreading a lie.
It's the Trump/MAGA way. They inhabit a world defined by LIES.
No. of Recommendations: 7
Poor Bear. Nothing to offer but the tired old lies from 4 years ago. Same thing his candidate is offering, come to think of it.
Not even worth a quick sparring match.
Benghazi, her emails, birtherism, election had to be rigged...... her laugh.
Yes. It's become tedious in its banal predictability.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Proven, objective facts don't matter to the Trisciples. Fantasy land. They're all being played and they don't even get it after all these years. Sad.
No. of Recommendations: 1
He picked 9 of the last 10 winners, he picked Gore to win, his only miss in 4 decades.
My memory is hazy, but didn't Gore win more votes than Bush Junior in Florida after all the hanging chads were unhanged and all the votes counted?
If true, the Supreme Court and not electoral votes made Bush Junior victorious, with spectacular results.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" My memory is hazy, but didn't Gore win more votes than Bush Junior in Florida after all the hanging chads were unhanged and all the votes counted?
If true, the Supreme Court and not electoral votes made Bush Junior victorious, with spectacular results."
good morning, didn't Comey cost Hillary the election? Did Bush win and get sworn in ? Lichtman's record is very impressive, regardless.
