Please be mindful of the tone of your posts, and avoid using tone that might be perceived as aggressive, confrontational, or dismissive. Instead, try to use a tone that is respectful, friendly, and supportive.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 1
No. of Recommendations: 4
Albaby, if you feel like wasting your time, ask the, usual suspects if all the betting sites are wrong? The polls? Harris did Bret Baier as a Hail Mary.
They're probably not wrong - as of right now, I think that based on what we know of the race, Trump is a modest favorite.
No. of Recommendations: 2
They're probably not wrong - as of right now, I think that based on what we know of the race, Trump is a modest favorite.
Hard to say. Depends on if polling has gotten any better since 2016/2020 when it underestimated his support by a fair amount in both elections.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Hard to say. Depends on if polling has gotten any better since 2016/2020 when it underestimated his support by a fair amount in both elections.I agree that it's hard to say. In 2016, the
national polls were pretty accurate (Clinton +3.2 compared to actual +2.1), but there were several very important
state polls that were off by enough to change the outcome. Pollsters then made a number of adjustments to try to adapt to that, and ended up having worse results nationally and in many of the same states. They've now made even
more changes, and they were pretty accurate in 2022 - but that was a midterm.
So...we don't know if what they're doing will result in (again) an underestimation of Trump, or whether the changes they've made to avoid underestimating Trump were sufficient - or even gone too far the other way.
And it's always worth remembering that polls can't tell us the future - even accurate ones just measure how things are at the time they take the poll. This is an election that might be close enough that it comes down to whether it rains in Philly on election day.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/17/us/...
No. of Recommendations: 3
the conning and the cover-ups never end.
"In response, the New York Times bent over backwards (and forwards) to downplay their preferred candidate's cut-n-pastery - first casting it as 'conservative activist seizes on passages' from Harris' book, then totally lying about Rufo's reporting - which Rufo quickly debunked.
As part of their propaganda, the Times wheeled out plagiarism expert Jonathan Bailey, who said "his initial reaction to Mr. Rufo’s claims was that the errors were not serious, given the size of the document."
Except, the Times concealed the extent of the claims from Bailey - who writes in his Plagiarism Today blog: "At the time, I was unaware of a full dossier with additional allegations, which led some to accuse the New York Times of withholding that information from me. However, the article clearly stated that it was my “initial reaction” to those allegations, not a complete analysis."
Just in case msnbc and NPR don't report this story.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/case-more-seri...
No. of Recommendations: 1
albaby, care to make a friendly, low stakes wager ?
I'll take Harris over Trump, in the only vote that counts, the Electoral Count.
Make it a low stakes, $50 bet. We can venmo the cash to the winner.
I'm an honest person, and I sure do get the sense that you are as well. I will
definitely pay up if I lose, no ifs, ands, or buts. And I have no doubt that you
would pay up as well, if the bet goes against you. I'm not asking for odds, either,
even though you are seeing trump as odds on favorite. Just a friendly wager, I'm totally
prepared to pay up, no big deal.
No. of Recommendations: 0
50 bucks I'll send you a topless pic of me if you want.
Prefer PayPal though.
No. of Recommendations: 6
Make it a low stakes, $50 bet.
Low stakes? My god, man, that's an entire night of babysitting!
I'll pass, though - while I think current information points to Trump being the favorite, it's not something I feel strongly enough about to actually wager on. Plus, I very much want Harris to win, not Trump - so I don't want to put money on Trump.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Make it a low stakes, $50 bet."
albaby, this is an easy arbitrage play. Bet him 50$$ and take trump at even money. I'll get you down on Harris as a 1.40 underdog. EASY $$, you can't lose!! Can this be converted into a betting site?
